India’s Population Growth and Its Wide Impacts

Source: The post India’s Population Growth and Its Wide Impacts has been created, based on the article “Why scrutiny of lower fertility rates isn’t the answer to the delimitation crisis” published in “Indian Express” on 4th December 2024

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper1-Society-population and associated issues

Context: The article discusses India’s population growth and its political, economic, and social impacts. It highlights the consequences of varying fertility rates among states, suggesting solutions like freezing delimitation, addressing demographic change, promoting economic growth, and focusing on reducing fertility in high TFR states. India Population Growth and Its Wide Impacts.

What is India’s population scenario?

1. India’s population is expected to peak at 170 crores by 2070 and decline afterward.
2. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is 2, slightly below the replacement level of 2.1.
3. About two-thirds of India’s population lives in states with replacement or lower fertility rates.
4. Five states have a TFR above 2.1, requiring focused intervention.
5. TFR varies significantly, from 1.5 in some states to 3.0 in others (as per NFHS-5).
6. Population reduction efforts must focus on empowering women and improving reproductive health services in high-TFR states to ensure balanced growth.

For detailed information on UN Report on India’s Population Growth read this article here

How has delimitation been addressed politically?

1. Freezing of Delimitation: Delimitation of Parliamentary seats based on population was frozen in 1976 for 25 years and extended again in 2001 for another 25 years.
2. Rationale for Freeze: This measure prevents penalizing states that successfully reduced fertility rates.
3. Extension Proposal: Extending the freeze for another 25 years is suggested to maintain fairness.
4. Alternative Solutions: Proposals like allocating seats based on vote share were discussed but deemed impractical.
5. States like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, with low fertility rates, might lose Parliamentary representation without this freeze.

How does population affect resource distribution?

1. The Finance Commission allocates resources based on population.
2. Before its 14th edition (constituted in 2013 for 2015-2020), calculations were based on the 1971 population.
3. From the 14th Finance Commission onward, calculations shifted to using current population figures (2011 Census data).
4. To offset disadvantages to states with low fertility rates, a “demographic change” variable was introduced.
5. In the 15th Finance Commission, population was weighted at 15%, and demographic change at 12.5%.
6. States with higher populations benefit more, while states reducing fertility rates receive less unless adjustments are made. This approach balances fairness and supports population control efforts.

For detailed information on Challenges of delimitation in India read this article here

Why is increasing fertility in low-TFR states unwise?

1. Low Fertility Rates Reflect Progress: States with low Total Fertility Rates (TFR), like 1.5 (NFHS-5), have achieved this by understanding the hardships of large families.
2. India is Overpopulated: The population will peak at 170 crores by 2070, requiring high economic growth for a decent standard of living.
3. Behavioral Patterns Are Hard to Change: Residents in low-TFR states may resist efforts to increase fertility due to their existing mindset.
4. Impracticality: Raising TFR where it is already low contradicts the goal of reducing overall population pressure.

What should be done?

1. Enhancing Women’s Empowerment: Empowered women tend to have fewer children.
2. Improving Reproductive Health Services: Better services help couples plan smaller families.
3. A multi-pronged approach, including freezing delimitation, improving health services, empowering women, and supporting lagging states economically, is necessary for harmonious relations and balanced development.

Question for practice:

Examine how India’s population dynamics influence political representation, resource allocation, and the need for targeted interventions in high TFR states.