Issues with Climate Predictions

Source: The post Issues with Climate Predictions has been created, based on the article “How global warming affects forecasting” published in “The Hindu” on 26th September is 2024

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 3 – Environment

Context: The article discusses the extreme weather events of 2023-2024 linked to global warming. It highlights the challenges in predicting climate patterns, the uncertainties in current models, and the need for improvements in forecasting. Reliable predictions are crucial for effective disaster management and planning.

For detailed information on Weather Forecasting in India read this article here

What Has the Recent Warming Shown Us?

1. The Earth’s temperature has likely risen beyond the 1.5º C mark compared to pre-industrial levels. This has led to a range of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, cyclones, floods, droughts, and wildfires.
2. The unpredictability of these events highlights the challenges in current weather prediction capabilities.

What Are the Issues with Climate Predictions?

1. Model Inaccuracy: Current climate models struggle to accurately reproduce natural climate patterns like monsoons. For example, they have not accurately predicted monsoon trends over the past fifty years and are considered unreliable for future predictions.
2. Increased Complexity with Warming: As global temperatures rise, predicting natural phenomena like hurricanes, El Niño, and La Niña becomes more complex. The unexpected warming from events like the 2023 El Niño and underwater volcanic activity have made predictions more difficult.
3. Variability and Unpredictability: The climate models often produce different outcomes even when configured the same way, which complicates understanding and predicting the climate’s response to ongoing warming.

How has the Indian monsoon been affected?

1. The 2023 Indian monsoon was erratic, with some areas experiencing drought and others facing severe floods and landslides.
2. Despite an El Niño event, the monsoon did not qualify as an El Niño drought, leaving researchers puzzled.
3. 2024 is expected to be a monsoon-surplus year, but it cannot be classified as a typical La Niña monsoon.
4. Predictions for a strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have not materialized.
5. The unpredictability of monsoon patterns, as seen in 2023-2024, reflects the challenges in current climate and weather models.

What Is the Future of Climate Predictions?

1. There is hope for improving prediction models through advanced technologies and better data collection.
2. However, the article suggests focusing on reliable short-term predictions rather than long-term projections due to the inherent uncertainties in predicting how various factors, like human activities and natural events, will interact in a warming world.

What can we learn from the recent warming?

1. Threshold Exceeded: Earth’s average temperature likely surpassed the critical 1.5º C increase over pre-industrial levels, leading to various extreme weather events.
2. Model Limitations: Current climate models struggle with accurate long-term predictions, particularly failing to reliably reproduce historical monsoon patterns.
3. Need for Improved Prediction Methods: There is a pressing need to enhance models using advanced technologies to better predict and manage the effects of climate variability.

Question for practice:

Discuss the challenges faced by current climate models in accurately predicting weather patterns, as highlighted by the extreme weather events of 2023-2024.