On India and the Taiwan conflict – Taiwan, a Malacca blockade and India’s options

Source: This post on India and the Taiwan conflict has been created based on the article “Taiwan, a Malacca blockade and India’s options” published in The Hindu on 9^th November 2023.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 2 International Relations – Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

News: This article discusses the limitations to what India can do in the event of a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan.

A detailed article on the China-Taiwan Crisis and its Implications for India can be read here.

What are the possible options available with India in the case of a China-Taiwan conflict?

Any action by India in the Strait of Malacca or the Andaman Sea would involve the following:

1. Naval blockade against commercial shipping
2. Naval blockade against China’s key trade and energy sea lines of communication.
3. Military action against Chinese naval vessels.

What are the challenges associated with India’s possible actions?

1. Violation of international law: Commercial shipping as well as naval vessels of any country have a right to freedom of navigation on the high seas. Blockades away from a belligerent nation’s geography can be challenged under international law.
2. Multiple Stakeholders: A significant volume of the trade of Japan, South Korea and even India itself passes through the Malacca Strait. This makes the issue more complex.
3. Threatens sovereignty of regional countries: The Strait involves the sovereignty of other states such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore who would all be affected adversely by a naval blockade. The affected countries are unlikely to support a naval blockade.
4. Issues with commercial shipping blockade: Commercial shipping is extremely complex to identify in terms of the sovereignty of the vessel, flag, and ownership of cargo. And these are often multinational in nature.
5. Alternative routes available: Shipping can take a detour either through the Sunda or the Lombok Straits to reach China.

Indian Ocean Choke points. Source: EIA.

6. China equipped to deal with disruptions: China has a huge onshore and floating Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR). Also, overland energy supplies from Russia and Central Asia are growing.
7. India’s action may threaten war: A naval blockade or unilateral action against an adversary’s naval vessels would be equal to a declaration of war; it could lead to a conflict.
8. China’s hard power: China would use its permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council and regional influence to mitigate any such action.

What should be the way forward for India?

India’s role should be limited to:

1. Defence of its own interests: A proactive defence of its territorial interests and the security of its sea lines of communication and those of its strategic partners should be India’s primary focus.
2. Focusing on land borders: India’s focus should remain on its continental borders with China.
3. Ensuring Multi-polarity: A robust India with a strong economy, nuclear deterrence capability and a credible military can contribute to multi-polarity in the Indo-Pacific.

Question for practice:

India will have to be careful before projecting its naval power in the Indian Ocean in the case of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Discuss.