Poonch terror attack: It typifies the low-intensity conflict that Pakistan keeps persisting with

Source- The post is based on the article “Poonch terror attack: It typifies the low-intensity conflict that Pakistan keeps persisting with” published in the “The Indian Express” on 27th April 2023.

Syllabus: GS2- Bilateral groupings and agreements

Relevance– India and Pakistan bilateral relationship

News – Recently, five soldiers were killed in Poonch terrorist attack.

What is Pakistan’s strategy in Jammu and Kashmir?

The Pakistan strategy is low-intensity conflict (LIC). It is characterised by hybrid war. Experience shows that there is little scope for a clear-cut victory and defeat in the low-intensity conflict in J&K.

A low-intensity conflict does not just disappear and provides sufficient scope for a bounce back. It is the people who ultimately decide their fate.

It need not be a Pulwama-type attack with dozens of fatalities. It is just something to draw attention and an attempt to show the flag.

What is the immediate reason for the Poonch terror attack?

First, is the G20 Tourism Meeting at Srinagar in the third week of May 2023. Pakistan’s aim is to disrupt the event and have it cancelled. The meet is an opportunity for India to showcase an integrated J&K to an important forum.

Second, and more complex event is the SCO Foreign Ministers Meeting at Goa on May 4-5. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto accepted the invitation for this meeting

There is speculation Sino-Pak may collaborate to embarrass India if New Delhi cancels the invitation due to the Poonch attack. If it does not, Bhutto can embarrass India by making awkward statements on Indian soil.

What is the way forward for security management in Jammu and Kashmir?

India must not do anything in a hurry. Foreign policy has been well-handled, and no major decisions are required when there is an international strategic turbulence, and nothing major is at stake.

Recalibration to balance out the attention between the northern and western borders will ensure greater pragmatism and the proper security focus.

The strategic community and the media must assume a larger and more pragmatic role instead of pressuring the government into any hurried decisions.

Operationally, the area south of Pir Panjal perhaps needs a review in terms of the density of troops. The terrain, the target’s proximity to the LoC and a mix of population keeps the area in a state of higher vulnerability.