The U.S exit from Afghanistan and Its Implications on South Asia

Synopsis: The U.S withdrawal from Afghanistan will impact the peace and security in south Asia.

Background

• The Afghanistan peace process was set to be discussed in the Istanbul conference hosted by the United Nations. However, it remains suspended due to the reluctance of the Taliban.
• Further, the US under President Joe Biden, is insistent on withdrawing the troops on September 11, even without any power-sharing deal between the rival parties.
• The US withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan will have many consequences on Afghanistan’s neighborhood and in Afghanistan. (India, China, Pakistan)

What are the impacts of the US withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan?

1. First, Impact on Afghanistan. Violence in Afghanistan will increase. Since the announcement of an exit date, Afghanistan continues to witness deadly attacks across its provinces. For instance, multiple blasts outside a girl’s school in Kabul recently.
2. Second, Impact on Pakistan.
   • One, The US’s unconditional support towards Pakistan will end. The U.S. military in Afghanistan for almost two decades was reliant on Pakistan for operational and other support. Pakistan smartly used this factor against India. However, With the US withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan, this dependency will disappear.
   • Two, Pakistan will be facing unconstrained refugee flows and terror attacks inside its territory if there is another cycle of violence in Afghanistan.
3. Third, impact on China. America’s military presence in Afghanistan has suppressed many terrorist groups that threaten China directly or indirectly in Central Asia. It would now leave Beijing vulnerable to its spillover effects, particularly in the restive Xinjiang province.
4. Fourth, Impact on India. India had underlined the need for “a genuine double peace” (within and around Afghanistan). Thus, India supports an “Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled” peace process. Similarly, there is worry in India that a Taliban-dominated regime in Afghanistan might allow Pakistan to dictate Afghanistan’s India policy.

Source: The Hindu