U.S. Peace Talks with Russia and Their Global Impact

Source: The post U.S. Peace Talks with Russia and Their Global Impact has been created, based on the article “Will the U.S.’s changed Ukraine policy end the Russia-Ukraine war?” published in “The Hindu” on 28th February 2025

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2- International Relations-Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Context: The article discusses U.S. President Donald Trump’s shift in Ukraine policy by engaging in peace talks with Russia. It explores the geopolitical implications, the impact on Ukraine, NATO, and Europe, and whether Trump’s strategy can end the Russia-Ukraine war.

For detailed information on Impact of recent shift in US-Russia relations read Article1, Article2

Why has the U.S. reversed its policy on peace talks with Russia?

1. The Biden administration avoided direct peace talks with Russia since the war began in 2022. Trump has now changed this policy, engaging with Russia to find a peaceful resolution. His campaign promised to “end the war,” which has led to talks in Riyadh.
2. His administration believes that NATO expansion caused the war and that the U.S. has spent too much on Ukraine ($350 billion)

What is Trump’s stance on Ukraine and its leadership?

1. Trump has criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling him a “dictator” and questioning his legitimacy. He insists Ukraine must hold elections.
2. Trump also links peace to U.S. economic interests, proposing that Ukraine grant the U.S. mineral rights in exchange for aid.
3. His policy has weakened Zelenskyy’s standing, with European allies worried about U.S. withdrawal.

Can a peace deal be successful, and what are the challenges?

1. Zelenskyy’s Resistance: Ukraine’s President opposes territorial concessions. His chief adviser, Andriy Yermak, also resists negotiations. European leaders support him.
2. U.S. Leverage: Trump controls Ukraine’s military aid. Without U.S. support, Ukraine’s war efforts may collapse, forcing Zelenskyy to negotiate.
3. Russia’s Military Gains: Russia controls Donbas, where Ukraine’s key mineral wealth lies. Russia sees this as an existential conflict and will not withdraw easily.
4. European Concerns: Europe fears U.S. withdrawal would weaken NATO. Some leaders want Ukraine to keep fighting.
5. Humanitarian Cost: One million people have died. Ukraine faces a manpower crisis, as noted by Marco Rubio.
6. Previous Failed Talks: Turkey mediated a deal in 2022, but the U.S. and U.K. opposed it. Riyadh now hosts peace talks.

Why is the war still ongoing despite humanitarian concerns?

1. Heavy Casualties: Ukraine has lost many soldiers, and its military lacks manpower. Russia has around 200,000 casualties but continues its offensive.
2. Ukraine Under Martial Law: Citizens cannot freely express opinions on ending the war.
3. Western Support: NATO sees this as a proxy war against Russia, sustaining Ukraine with funds and weapons.
4. Nationalist Resistance: Neo-Nazi and ultra-nationalist groups in Ukraine oppose peace.
5. Russia’s Commitment: Moscow considers this an existential conflict and refuses to withdraw.

Why are peace talks happening in Riyadh instead of India?

1. Traditional Locations Shifted: Peace talks were previously held in Helsinki, Brussels, and Geneva. Now, Riyadh is the chosen venue, surprising the European Union and the global community.
2. Saudi-Russian Relations: Putin visited Saudi Arabia earlier, and he enjoys good relations with Saudi Arabia, making Riyadh a favorable location for Russia.
3. U.S. Strategy: The U.S. sees Riyadh as a strategic alternative to traditional Western venues, aligning with Trump’s diplomacy shift.
4. India’s Role: India maintained neutrality, criticized sanctions, and remained a strong Russian ally throughout the war.
5. Outcome for India: India benefits from a U.S.-Russia reset, while Europe emerges as the biggest loser in this geopolitical shift.

Question for practice:

Discuss the impact of the U.S.’s shift in Ukraine policy on the Russia-Ukraine war, European security, and global diplomacy.