Understanding Global Power Shifts and Emerging Influences
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Source: The post Understanding Global Power Shifts and Emerging Influences has been created, based on the article “Today’s world is literally and metaphorically bipolar” published in “Live mint” on 28th January 2025

 Global Power Shifts and Emerging Influences

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2- International Relations-Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Context: The article discusses the global power structure, highlighting a bipolar world dominated by the US and China. It emphasizes economic strength, trade networks, and reforms as key for emerging powers like India to gain influence and join global leadership platforms.

What is the global power structure today?

  1. The world is largely bipolar, dominated by the US and China.
  2. The US remains powerful due to military strength, global alliances, and the dollar as a reserve currency.
  3. China has risen as a near-peer competitor with strategic trade investments and initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
  4. Emerging powers like India and others are yet to reach the level of being a ‘pole.’

For detailed information on No, the US-led global order is not collapsing read this article here

How does defence spending influence power?

  1. US Defence Spending: The US spends more on defence than the next five countries combined (Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, the UK, and Germany). This allows the US to maintain about 750 military bases globally, with 350 in strategic locations like Japan, South Korea, Germany, and Italy.
  2. China’s Efficiency: China spends only a third of the US defence budget but has emerged as a near-peer adversary. Its influence stems from trade, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and strategic bases like Djibouti.
  3. Russia’s Limitations: Despite its large nuclear arsenal and resources, Russia lacks economic strength and diversity, limiting its global influence.
  4. Emerging Powers: Countries like India and Indonesia lag behind as they need economic growth and reforms before becoming influential powers.
  5. Thus, defence spending impacts power but requires complementary economic and strategic initiatives.

How does China expand its global influence?

  1. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China invests heavily in infrastructure projects across Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia to build economic partnerships.
  2. Strategic Bases: China has established its first international military base in Djibouti, strategically located near the Red Sea and Suez Canal.
  3. Listening Posts: It operates listening posts in Cuba and Kazakhstan for strategic monitoring.
  4. Trade and Investment: China focuses on trade-led influence in regions like the Caribbean and its maritime zones, boosting economic interdependence.
  5. Cost Efficiency: Despite spending only a third of the US defence budget, China rapidly expands global influence through economic means.

How can India increase its global influence?

  1. Focus on Economic Strength: India must prioritize creating inclusive prosperity, achieve upper-middle-income status, and balance fiscal and current accounts to strengthen its foundation for influence.
  2. Leverage G7 Membership: India has been invited to 11 G7 outreach meetings. Securing permanent membership would enhance its role in global economic discussions.
  3. Join Key Trade Groups: Joining plurilateral trade groups like CPTPP or RCEP is crucial to becoming part of global supply chains, which increasingly involve multiple countries.
  4. Expand Trade Networks: Strengthening trade networks will help India gain influence in international trade and economic systems.
  5. Undertake Domestic Reforms: Reforms to enhance economic efficiency and competitiveness are necessary for long-term growth and global recognition.
  6. Highlight Economic Indicators: India’s GDP, measured in both exchange rates and PPP, places it among the world’s largest economies and strengthens its claim to global leadership.
  7. Manage Bipolar Dynamics: India should recognize the current US-China bipolar structure and strategically navigate this landscape to expand its influence.

For detailed information on India’s Growing Stature – A Rising Power read this article here

Question for practice:

Examine how economic strength, defence spending, and strategic initiatives shape global influence in the current bipolar world.


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