What latest climate report says: No time to waste, but world is not out of options yet

News: Working group III of the IPCC has released the third and final instalment of the AR6.

The report cautions that to have any chance of restricting global temperature rise to 1.5-2^oC from pre-industrial levels, the world must act now.

It emphasises that strengthening of climate action to keep alive the 1.5 degree target was not just possible, but, to a large extent, also feasible and affordable.

What are some key findings of the report?

As per the report,

– Unless the global greenhouse gas emissions peaks by 2025, just three years from now, and is cut by at least 43% from current levels by 2030, the 1.5^oC target cannot be achieved. (This is going to be tough as the global emissions are still showing an increasing trend. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 are about 12% higher than in 2010)

– Global average temperatures have already risen about 1.1^oC from pre-industrial times. The 1.5^oC threshold would most likely be breached, even in the best case scenario.

– The climate actions that are currently promised would result in a world that would be about 3.2^oC warmer than pre-industrial times, and that is not a comfortable scenario at all.

– The situation already is so bad that, even after substantial reductions in emissions, human beings would have to rely on futuristic carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to bring down the temperatures.

What feasible options are still available?

As per the report,

– A lot of reductions in the current level of emissions can be achieved through existing technologies that are not just feasible, but also affordable, though both, the feasibility and affordability, vary across regions and sectors.

– Nearly half the world’s current emissions can be cut by 2030 using only technologies that cost less than US$100 to reduce one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent.

For example: Large-scale deployment of renewables like solar or wind energy, carbon sequestration in soil, reduction in deforestation and improvement of energy efficiency etc.

– 25% of the current emissions can be reduced using technologies that cost less than US$ 20 per tonne of CO₂. Such technologies include the shift to electric vehicles, lifestyle changes like adoption of cycles instead of motorized vehicles, and large-scale use of public transport.

What is the way forward?

As per the report,

– Traditional sources of energy like oil, gas and coal would have to be almost completely abandoned over the next few decades if the climate goals have to be achieved. For instance: Coal would need to be given up entirely by the year 2050, while the use of oil and gas need to be reduced by at least 60 and 70% respectively.

Source: This post is based on the article “What latest climate report says: No time to waste, but world is not out of options yet” published in The Indian Express on 7th Apr 22.