Current Affairs Compilations for UPSC IAS Prelims 2022

Mains Oriented Articles

GS Paper 2

GS Paper 3

• Bridging the growing trust deficit in Manipur
• Before talking cooperation, China needs to stop aggression against India
• What Manoj Mishra got right about Yamuna restoration
• Getting railway safety back on track after Odisha
• Investment: The Next Big Story
• RBI puts bank boards on notice

Prelims Oriented Articles (Factly)

Mains Oriented Articles

GS Paper 2

One World One Health

Source: The post is based on the article “One World One Health” published in The Times of India on 9th June 2023.

Syllabus: GS 2 – Issues associated with health

News: This article discusses the current state of digital health and the potential it holds for transforming healthcare.

Digital health is on the brink of disruptive technologies but lacks a standardized framework and global vision.

What is the status of digital health in India?

India has seen transformative digital tools in public health, such as CoWIN and eSanjeevani, during pandemic.

CoWIN tracked vaccine logistics, registered people for vaccination, and generated digital certificates, democratizing the vaccination drive.

eSanjeevani, a telemedicine platform, allowed online consultations with doctors from home, handling over 10 crore consultations.

Other digital tools like Aarogya Setu and RT-PCR app informed policy and strengthened India’s Covid response.

India is building a national digital health ecosystem – Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission (ABDM) – to exploit the potential of digital tools in public health. ABDM empowers patients to store and access medical records, share these with healthcare providers, and ensure treatment.

What are the challenges to digital health?

most transformative digital solutions are not easily accessible due to copyright regimes and proprietary systems.

Digital public goods or open-source solutions exist. But there is no global governance framework for digital health that can ensure interoperability across systems and address concerns around data security and privacy.

What should be done?

1) Converge scattered efforts into a global initiative on digital health and institutionalize a governance framework.

2) Collaborate on a protocol for digital health, similar to what was done for the internet.

3) Identify and scale up promising digital solutions as digital public goods.

4) Involve all stakeholders and build trust for global exchange of health data.

5) Find ways to fund such initiatives.

GS Paper 3

Bridging the growing trust deficit in Manipur

Source– The post is based on the article “Bridging the growing trust deficit in Manipur” published in “The Hindu” on 9thJune 2023.

Syllabus: GS3- Security

Relevance- Security Issues related to north-east

News- Ethnic violence between the Meiteis and the Kukis in Manipur is taking place for some days, especially after the Manipur High Court’s march order. The order asked the State to recommend Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to Meiteis.

What are the concerns of Kukis that are responsible for conflict?

Manipur High Court asked the State to recommend ST status to Meiteis.

The Manipur government had begun a drive to evict tribal villages from reserved forests. It was perceived to be an anti-tribal move. It led to discontent and suspicion among the Kukis and other tribals.

Hundreds of Kuki tribals have been dislodged from their traditional settlement areas without rehabilitation.

What are the concerns of Meiteis that are responsible for conflict?

Meiteis form 52% of the State’s population but are restricted to 10% of the geographical area.  They cannot shift and relocate themselves because of their non-inclusion in the ST category to the hill area.

Meiteis are concerned that non-inclusion in STs list has deprived them of the right to occupy 90% of the territory of the State.

The land issue is more crucial for them. Meiteis have had a history of violence and struggles before integration with India and acquiring the Hindu tag.

They formed several insurgent groups such as the People’s Liberation Army, with bases in Bangladesh and Myanmar. They also protested the presence of Mayangs which included Manipur Muslims called Pangals.

What is the way forward to calm the situation?

The solution lies in military operations, till the intensity and the spread of the violence is controlled. The Indian Army, the Central Reserve Police Force, the Border Security Force and even the Indian Air Force have been deployed.

The Centre’s stand and the presence of the Army and central forces are restoring the confidence of the Kukis.

The administrative and judicial interventions of the immediate past have proved to be very costly. It is necessary to take care of the sensitivities of the tribals, their susceptibilities. There is a need to undo the damaging steps that have created the trust deficit, which is the root cause for the turmoil now.

Before talking cooperation, China needs to stop aggression against India

Source– The post is based on the article “Before talking about cooperation, China needs to stop aggression against India” published in the “The Indian Express” on 9th June 2023.

Syllabus: GS3- Bilateral groupings and agreements

News– Recently, China’s top diplomat to India, Ma Jia, wrote that China and India can work together towards the recovery and growth of the world economy (‘A Focus on Common Interests’, IE June 2).

What are the steps needed to be taken by China for improving relations with India?

There is a huge difference between China’s claim to have a peaceful relationship with India and its actions. Beijing should undergo a psychological assessment. It should maintain pragmatism into its South Asia policy.

There is a need to mend ties. Acknowledging India as an indispensable Asian and global power is a starting point for any future cooperation.

Certain good faith measures are needed. It should maintain calm at the borders. It should not undermine India’s relationship with its neighbors in South Asia. Maintaining peace at the borders is the first step towards cooperation.

Moreover, there is no strategic logic for the uninhabitable high grounds that China is trying to capture.

China has built a foreign policy narrative based on a lack of respect from the West. It should treat everyone with respect, especially a rising power like India.

Why does the onus of improving relationships lie more on China?

Indians feel that China’s India policy is driven by dogmas such as the Middle Kingdom and unipolar Asia.

Since the 1962 Sino-Indian war, Sinophiles within the Indian establishment have held the view that China’s frontier aggression is driven by Beijing’s desire to contain India in Asia and the developing world.

China’s dream of a unipolar Asia will never materialise. If Japan was a counterweight in the past, India is the counterweight of the future. Recent macroeconomic forecasts suggest that India’s position is strong in a long run.

What are the impacts of Chinese aggressive moves on its relationship with India?

China’s aggression is pushing India towards military alignment with West. It exacerbates China’s security dilemma with a deepening Indo-US alliance.

India has had more hesitation with the West than it has with China today. However, China’s belligerence is creating a new set of hesitations for China.

When India joined the RCEP negotiations in 2012 and became the second-biggest stakeholder in the AIIB in 2014, it was seen as the start of Asian multilateralism.

New Delhi’s refusals for the RCEP show increasing disenchantment with ideas built on promises of cooperation. The clashes in Galwan changed things forever.

What Manoj Mishra got right about Yamuna restoration

Source– The post is based on the article “What Manoj Mishra got right about Yamuna restoration” published in “The Indian Express” on 9th June 2023.

Syllabus: GS3- Environment

Relevance- Issues related to river pollution

News– On Sunday, hundreds of volunteers from all walks of life formed a human chain along the banks of the Yamuna to raise awareness about the pollution in the river.

What are the issues with the approach to rejuvenating rivers in India?

There is no paradigm shift in the approach to rejuvenating rivers in more than 40 years. Ganga Action Plan had an STP (Sewage treatment Plant)-centred approach.

The Namami Gange plan also assigns a dominant role to STPs. The Namami Gange seems to be a replica of the GAP.

There is a lack of creative thinking. There are shortcomings in cleaning the river approach. River needs to have enough water and its floodplains shouldn’t be obstructed from recharging groundwater.

The current paradigm of pollution control aims to control the quality of the effluent at the source of the pollution. It does not bother about the river’s assimilative capacity.

What is a better approach to rejuvenate the river Yamuna in Delhi?

The Yamuna is not just about the water body that flows through Delhi. Attention should be given to what happens upstream. Care should be taken of the needs of the people who depend on it downstream.

A river has its own capacity to tackle pollution. But these are contingent on its flow. Flow depends on upstream aquifers. Besides, there are seasonal variations in the amount of water. Aquatic plants also help the river assimilate pollution.

Tackling industrial pollutants is important. No river has the capacity to cleanse inorganic pollutants. A better approach should be to account for both effluent standards and the ability of the river to tackle pollution.

Delhi should look at alternate sources for its drinking water like rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharging.

Absence of a statutory provision to safeguard floodplains is a big issue. There is a need for a River Regulation Zone, along the lines of the Coastal Regulation.

Diversion of water by building barrages does injustice to the river: “Lift not divert water” is the right strategy.

What are issues with river management in Delhi?

The master plans of Delhi paid little attention to the relationship of the city’s people with the Yamuna. Urban planning in the country does not give attention to the geomorphology of water bodies.

The industrial and drinking water needs of Haryana on the west of the river and UP on the east are predominantly met by groundwater. However, the Delhi Jal Board is getting nearly 90% of its needs from surface water.

In the past, Delhi did not depend on the Yamuna for potable water. It relied on step wells, water tanks and canals. Things began to change in the late 19th century.

Getting railway safety back on track after Odisha

Source– The post is based on the article “Getting railway safety back on track after Odisha” published in “The Hindu” on 9th June 2023.

Syllabus: GS3- Disaster management

Relevance– Issues related to rail accident

News- A major train accident happened at Bahanaga Bazar station in Balasore district, Odisha, on the evening of June 2.

What may be the possible causes of the accident?

There is interlocking of signals and routes through a series of relays and logic gates. It ensures that a train is guided by signals to a route to avoid an encounter with another train. In this case, this interlocking might be overridden by manual intervention.

There are two possible causes. In the first, it was done by a signal maintainer who has access to the equipment hut or relay room. He may have acted in haste to expedite the maintenance work so that the running train is not affected.

In the second instance, it is done with criminal intention to cause an accident.

However, it is quite surprising to understand that a signal maintainer can meddle with the system and cause havoc of this magnitude.

The heart of the interlocking equipment is housed in a central relay room in the main station building. The station master and the maintainer have keys to a double lock.

The tampering with equipment in this room is possible by the maintainer, in connivance with the station master. But, the chances of this are low.

On the other hand, there are some pieces of remote equipment installed in huts and location boxes. The access to these is possible only by the authorised maintainer. The possibilities of tampering are greater in such locations.

What is the way forward to avoid such types of accidents?

Stronger safeguards against such misadventures are needed.

The provision of a double lock system even for remote huts in railway stations can be explored. But it increases the chances of train delays.

This is an age of mobile phones and IT applications, and it is possible to have a system of multiple digital authorisations to access such equipment without the physical movement of staff other than the maintainers.

The rail network in India is largely saturated, the number of train services has gone up exponentially. There is a need to fill all vacancies in the safety categories.

The provision of Kavach could not have prevented this accident. But other aspects of safety do demand faster implementation of Kavach. This would not only enhance rail safety but also improve the sectional capacity to run more trains.

Investment: The Next Big Story

Source: The post is based on the article “Investment: The Next Big Story” published in The Times of India on 9^th June 2023.

Syllabus: GS 3 – Indian Economy – Growth & Development

Relevance: About the factors behind increasing investment rates

News: The article explains factors behind the increasing investments rates in India.

What is investment and what are its impacts?

At an aggregate level, investment refers to spending by economic agents (households, private corporations and government) on creation of capital assets.

In the short run, investment influences GDP via the transactional impact of generation of capital assets while in the longer run, it boosts the productive capacity of the economy and increases overall efficiency.

What has been India’s investment story?

India’s share of investments in GDP (investment rate) peaked at 35.8% in 2007-08, while it dropped to 27.3% in 2020-21 due to the pandemic.

However, the investment rate has recovered to 29.2% in 2022-23. Further, the investment rate attained a level of 31. 7% on a standalone basis during January-March 2023, the highest in the last 35 quarters.

What caused the rise in the investment rate?

First, the government implemented counter-cyclical fiscal policy to support the economy when the private sector withdrew due to uncertainty.

The government’s budgetary capital spending has jumped from its pre-Covid level of 3.6% of GDP in 2019-20 to 4.9% of GDP in 2022-23, the highest since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

Second, the government has tried to retain focus on long term macro-stability while announcing structural measures to revive investments.

For example, the National Infrastructure Pipeline, National Monetisation Programme, Gati Shakti, etc. has attempted to improve the business climate.

Third, with the RBI’s intervention, the twin balance sheet syndrome, which was a burden on both the corporate sector as well as the banking sector, has now improved.

As per CMIE data, the non-financial sector’s debt has declined sharply from 16.8% in 2020-21 to 10. 7% in 2022-23. This has helped boost profitability in the corporate sector.

This improvement has translated into better asset quality for the banking sector. As per RBI data, the gross NPA ratio of all scheduled commercial banks reduced from 11.2% in FY18 to 5.0% in September 2022.

Fourth, Normalisation of economic activity after the pandemic has also pushed up investments.

Fifth, geopolitical preference of ‘China Plus One’ strategy has benefited countries like India, Vietnam and Bangladesh in attracting and boosting investments.

Sixth, input price inflation has shown signs of moderation. For instance, the price of the Brent crude oil has decreased from the previous year. This decline would help lower WPI inflation.

What can be the way ahead?

The global economic downturn and strong tightening of interest rates over the last year have created near-term cyclical headwinds. These factors may temporarily slow down the pace of investment rate.

However, according to the IMF, India has had one of the strongest post-Covid gains in investment rate, and it likely to outperform peer groups in the long run. Therefore, we can continue to expect the investment rate to increase further.

RBI puts bank boards on notice

Source: The post is based on the article “RBI puts bank boards on notice” published in Business Standard on 9^th June 2023.

Syllabus: GS 3 – Indian Economy – Money & Banking

Relevance: About the recent meeting of the RBI governor

News: Recently, the RBI governor held a conference with private as well as public sector banks’ directors.

What are the excerpts of the meeting?

The RBI Governor expressed confidence in the resilience of the Indian banking system, due to the implementation of various initiatives.

For instance, the RBI has implemented established a dedicated vertical for supervisors and a college of supervisors.

Furthermore, the central bank has ensured a degree of independence for key assurance functions in banks, such as risk management, compliance, and internal audit, through a system of dual reporting to the CEO and the board.

The RBI’s off-site surveillance, which requires banks to upload raw data to the RBI, has been beneficial in providing an overall view of risks at individual banks and within the system.

Further, the Annual Financial Inspection report and the Risk Assessment Report (RAR), which the RBI submits to banks, have been crucial at pointing out areas of concern.

Now, the major problem areas highlighted in the RAR is resolved within a few weeks or months of submission of the report instead of taking too much time.

Moreover, the RBI governor presented a 10-point charter for bank boards. Out of which, there were few important issues that require serious consideration.

What were the important issues highlighted by the RBI governor?

Dominance of CEOs: The RBI governor has said that the dominance of the CEO is the central problem of governance in bank boards.

He gave the example of the failure of the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) during the global financial crisis. Despite having a high-profile board with the necessary skills, the board was unable to prevent the disastrous decisions made by the CEO.

Further, it becomes difficult for directors to challenge a CEO especially if he or she has a track record of performance. Therefore, directors worry that they may derail a performing CEO.

Composition of Board Member: Board members are often selected from a limited pool of individuals, including former CEOs, retired bureaucrats, and other professionals.

They have good relations with the CEOs. Due to which, they find it difficult to challenge the decisions made by the CEOs.

Further, directors often receive significant compensation, and the CEO plays a crucial role in the renewal of their terms. This creates a situation where directors do not find it suitable in challenging the CEOs.

Hence, to address the issue, it is necessary to have at least one or two directors whose selection is independent of the CEO and the promoter. 

Changing the experts: Currently, the board members include experts from the small-scale sector and agriculture specialists.

However instead of including these experts, the regulator should focus on three areas of expertise: banking, audit, and risk management. 

What can be the way ahead?

The RBI governor highlighted the concerns and shortcomings in the banking system.

He urged boards to value the system of a bank and make it into a healthy corporate sector as it directly impacts the institution’s reputation, stability, and long-term viability.

Prelims Oriented Articles (Factly)

Cyclone’s effect on monsoon onset

Source: The post is based on the article “Cyclone’s effect on monsoon onset” published in The Hindu on 9th June 2023

What is the News?

Cyclone formations in the pre-monsoon cyclone season, closer to the monsoon onset, may be due to the influence of a warmer Arctic Ocean on the winds over the Arabian Sea.

What are the factors which affect the Monsoons?

The impact of global warming on the monsoons is manifest in its onset, withdrawal, seasonal total rainfall, and extremes.

The monsoon is affected by the three tropical oceans — Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific; the ‘atmospheric bridge’ from the Arctic; and the oceanic tunnel as well as the atmospheric bridge from the Southern Ocean (Antarctic Ocean).

Note: A ‘bridge’ refers to two faraway regions interacting in the atmosphere while a ‘tunnel’ refers to two remote oceanic regions connecting within the ocean.

How Monsoon and cyclone patterns are shifting?

Monsoon: The conventional pattern of occurrence of cyclones usually post-monsoon (October-November) has shifted to pre-monsoon times (April-May).

Cyclone: There is an unusual occurrence of cyclones either in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal affects the monsoon over the Indian subcontinent. Some cyclones in the North Indian Ocean have had both positive and negative impacts on the onset of the monsoon.

Interaction between cyclone and monsoon: Both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have warmed by more than 1º C in the pre-monsoon season. Further, the location of the cyclone is critical on the monsoon trough as the circulation of winds around the cyclones is in the anticlockwise direction.

Note: The monsoon trough is a low-pressure region that is a characteristic feature of the monsoons.

What is the recent Cyclone’s effect on monsoon?

Cyclone Mocha: It was developed in the Bay of Bengal in the first half of May. It intensified into a ‘super cyclonic storm’. Mocha’s northwest-to-east trajectory over the Bay was the result of the presence of unusual anticyclones (which rotate clockwise) over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal since March.

Cyclone Biparjoy: It was formed in the Arabian Sea. Its late birth and the late onset of the monsoon are both closely related to typhoons in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. So, Biparjoy may rapidly intensify before making landfall.

Typhoon Mawar: It is qualified as a ‘super typhoon’ and is thus far the strongest typhoon to have taken shape in May. It is also the strongest cyclone of 2023 so far.

Tropical Storm Guchol: It is now active just to the east of the Philippines and is likely to continue northwest before veering off to the northeast.

Both Mawar and Guchol have contributed to the Southwesterly winds that hinder the progress of the monsoon trough.

How cyclone’s effect on monsoon has impacted the prediction of the onset of monsoon?

The monsoon trough, once considered a reliable system, is now subject to the uncertainties of climate change. So, now the monsoons are now like small cars moving along the strong South-Westerly winds over the Bay of Bengal which act like highways.

The intricate interplay between global warming, cyclogenesis, and typhoon activity in the Pacific and North Indian Oceans presents challenges in accurately predicting the monsoon onset and its evolution.

However, a late monsoon onset does not necessarily indicate a deficit in rainfall.

CSE finds ground-level ozone pollution in Delhi-NCR all-year problem, persists at nights too

Source: The post is based on the article “CSE finds ground-level ozone pollution in Delhi-NCR all-year problem, persists at nights too” published in the DTE on 5th June 2023

What is the News?

According to the Centre for Science and Environment’s (CSE) analysis, the ground-level ozone pollution affecting parts of the Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR) was lower this year than in the last five years, but the duration of its exceedance was higher.

The report was based on data from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). The analysis highlights the duration and geographical spread of Ozone Pollution, its impact during different seasons, and the underlying causes.

What is ground-level ozone and its impact on health?

Ground-level ozone is a colourless and highly irritating gas that forms near the Earth’s surface, typically within two miles above the ground. It is also known as Tropospheric ozone.

The WHO Air Quality Guidelines for ambient (outdoor) ozone is 100 μg/m3 (~50 ppb) measured as an 8-hour maximum moving average within a day.

What are the key findings of the CSE analysis on ground-level ozone pollution?

Exceed in duration: Many parts of the Delhi-NCR region witnessed ground-level ozone exceeding the national standards on 87 out of 92 days between March and May in 2023. Elevated ozone levels persist even hours after sunset in NCR, this is contrary to expectations.

Not limited to seasons: Ozone pollution is not limited to specific seasons. Even during winter months, Delhi-NCR experienced excess ozone levels on multiple days in January 2023.

High vulnerable areas: New Delhi and South Delhi areas were the most affected by ground-level ozone pollution.

Note: In winter months cold and foggy conditions inhibit ground-level ozone formation.

Major new research claims smaller-brained Homo naledi made rock art and buried the dead. But the evidence is lacking

Source: The post is based on the article “Major new research claims smaller-brained Homo naledi made rock art and buried the dead. But the evidence is lacking” published in the DTE on 6th June 2023

What is the News?

Three new studies (as pre-prints awaiting peer review) claim to have found evidence that Homo naledi intentionally buried their dead (a sophisticated practice usually associated with Homo sapiens) and made rock art, which suggests advanced cognitive abilities.

Who are Homo Naledi?

Homo Naledi is a species of human discovered in the Rising Star cave system, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in South Africa in 2013.

Note: In the Rising Star cave system, the remains of at least 15 individuals, including adults, juveniles, and infants, were found. Thereby making it the largest collection of a single hominin species in Africa.

These are short-statured, small-brained ancient cousins and are thought to have lived in Southern Africa between 335,000 and 241,000 years ago (possibly up to 2 million years ago).

They exhibit a combination of primitive and modern features and are not a direct ancestor of modern humans.

What are the key highlights of the study?

Burrial practice: Homo Naledi deliberately buried their dead. Previously, the earliest evidence of Mortuary behaviour was found among Neanderthals and modern humans, occurring more than 100,000 years after Homo naledi.

Note: Humans’ behaviour of burying the dead is known as Mortuary behaviour. This is characterized by social acts and a complex understanding of death.

Practised Rock art: Homo naledi may have created rock art in Rising Star Cave. The report describes engravings in the form of deeply impressed cross-hatchings and geometric shapes such as squares, triangles, crosses and X’s.

Note: Earlier, rock art has traditionally been associated with Homo sapiens and other large-brained ancestors.

Application of fire: Homo naledi used fire strategically for illumination during mortuary and engraving activities in the cave.

What are the controversies surrounding the report findings on Homo naledi?

a) There is no compelling evidence of deliberately excavated pits or anatomical alignment of skeletal remains, b) The spatial association of some skeletal elements does not confirm intentional burial, and c) The absence of dating for the engravings raises doubts about their attribution to Homo naledi.

Most train accidents due to human error, not sabotage

Source: The post is based on the article “Most train accidents due to human error, not sabotage” published in the Livemint on 9th June 2023

What is the News?

The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Railways submitted a report about train accidents months before the Odisha train tragedy.

What are the key findings of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on train accidents?

The vast majority of the accidents in the six years to 2022 period were found to be the result of either equipment failure or human error.

Derailment is the major cause: Of 244 “consequential rail accidents” tracked between 2017 and 2021, the main reason was derailment, accounting for as many as 184 accidents. One of the reasons for derailment is the slow pace of track renewal by the railways.

Low amount of Sabotage: Sabotage accounted for just 1% of rail accidents. For example, between 2017-18 and 2021-22, just three cases of rail accidents were the result of sabotage in a total of about 244 accidents. The report doesn’t say who were behind the three acts of sabotage.

Other reasons: Failure of railway staff resulted in 164 accidents and failure of equipment caused 15 of the accidents during the period.

What are the findings of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report on derailments?

The CAG report on derailments was tabled in Parliament last year. The key highlights of the report are, a) Allotments from the Rashtriya Rail Sanraksha Kosh (RRSK) —a fund created for critical safety-related works by the railways to prevent accidents—have been declining, b) The funds allocated to track renewal works were not fully utilized, c) Out of 1,127 derailments, 289 derailments (26%) were linked to track renewals.

What is the ‘onset’ of the monsoon, and why the delayed onset is not necessarily bad news

Source: The post is based on the article “What is the ‘onset’ of the monsoon, and why the delayed onset is not necessarily bad news” published in the Indian Express on 9th June 2023

What is the News?

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala this year will be delayed.

What is meant by the “onset of the monsoon” over the Kerala coast?

The onset of the monsoon over Kerala signals the beginning of the four-month (June-September) southwest monsoon season. During the southwest monsoon, India gets more than 70% of its annual rainfall. It is an important day in the economic calendar of the country.

‘Onset’ is a technical expression with a specific definition and the IMD does not officially declare onset until certain prescribed conditions are met. The onset does not mean the first rain of the season. That can start happening in certain places even before the onset is declared.

The normal date of the onset of the monsoon over the Kerala coast is June 1.  The monsoon covers the entire country by July 15. Neither an early nor a late onset of the monsoon is unusual.

What are the IMD defined conditions for the onset of the monsoon?

According to the IMD, the onset of the monsoon happens when there is a significant transition in the large-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations in the Indo-Pacific region. The IMD essentially looks at the consistency of rainfall over a defined geography, the intensity of the rainfall, and the wind speed.

Rainfall: The onset is declared if at least 60% of 14 designated meteorological stations in Kerala and Lakshadweep record at least 2.5 mm of rain for two consecutive days at any time after May 10.

The onset over Kerala is declared on the second day, as long as specific wind and temperature criteria are also fulfilled.

Wind field: The IMD says that the depth of westerlies should be up to 600 hectopascal (1 hPa is equal to 1 millibar of pressure) in the area that is bound by the equator to 10ºN latitude, and from longitude 55ºE to 80ºE.

Heat: The INSAT-derived Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) value should be below 200 watt per sq m (wm2) in the area between the 5ºN and 10ºN latitudes, and 70ºE and 75ºE longitudes.

Note: Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) value is a measure of the energy emitted to space by the Earth’s surface, oceans, and atmosphere.

What are the impacts of the delayed onset of the monsoon?

A delay in the onset over Kerala can potentially delay the arrival of the monsoon in other parts of the country, especially in the southern states. However, the delayed onset over Kerala does not automatically or invariably mean delays in the arrival of the monsoon over other parts of the country.

This is because the northward progression of the monsoon after it has hit the Kerala coast is not uniform and depends on local factors, including the creation of low-pressure areas.

A delay or an early arrival has no bearing on the quality or amount of rainfall, or its regional distribution across the country.