IMD’s new Dynamical Forecast Model

Synopsis – IMD recently updated the status of the monsoon and predicted a normal monsoon this year. IMD has adopted a new Dynamical Forecast Model. It will allow farmers, government officials, disaster managers, and other stakeholders to better prepare for their activities.

Introduction-

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a normal monsoon for this year.
• Further, the southwest monsoon in 2021, which will begin in June, is forecast to be regular, with 98 percent of the Long Period Average rainfall (LPA).
• During the monsoon season, weak El Nino conditions are likely to prevail, with severity decreasing as the season progresses.
• Rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of the Long Period Average [LPA] is considered normal.

What is the importance of the new Dynamical monsoon Model?

New Dynamical Monsoon Forecast Model uses the evolving weather patterns to predict monsoon. It is not like the traditional method in which the forecast was based on a fixed set of meteorological variables.

• Also, dynamic models are useful for predicting rainfall over smaller spatial and temporal scales. It is not possible with IMD’s previous statistical forecasting method.
• IMD will forecast rainfall for June and September, using this model. It was previously difficult to predict due to the monsoon’s arrival and departure.
• There will also be forecasts for the monsoon core zone [MCZ]. It represents most of the rain-fed agriculture regions in the country.

Why is it important to correctly forecast rainfall?

1. For disaster preparedness – Accurate forecasts will aid in the implementation of preventative measures, the reduction of vulnerabilities. It can also prevent extreme events from turning into disasters.
   • For example- Preparation of a heat plan/forest fires plan in case of hot summer.
2. For agriculture purposes – Farmers can decide on sowing time based on local conditions. Also, they can decide the type of crop that is best suited to the conditions, using accurate forecasting.
3. For Government planning- the Centre and states can prepare better joint plans with respect to agriculture; such as drought action plan, MSP and buffer creation. It can better use and optimize government schemes
4. For several business and service sector industries which need weather products.

Way forward-

IMD’s move from a statistical to Dynamical Forecast model will improve the accuracy of its forecast, so that farmers, policymakers, local administration, scientists & aid organizations can make most of it.

Source- The Hindu