GoI Will Have To Keep Buddha Smiling

News: Russian invasion of Ukraine has reignited the debate of the significance of robust nuclear deterrence.

Since the Russian invasion the question is being raised – would Russia have invaded Ukraine, if the latter had not given up its nuclear stockpile. It is notable, that Ukraine had given up its nuclear stockpile along with Belarus and Kazakhstan, after the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances in 1994.

Why India requires nuclear deterrence capabilities?

First, India is facing a 2-front challenge from China and Pakistan. Both these countries have more nuclear warheads than India. China has more than double the number India has.

Second, As per a Pentagon report, China’s nuclear warheads can go up to 700 in the next six years and top 1,000 by 2030.

Third, US focus on Europe may embolden China to step up the pressure on India’s northern borders. India might not receive help from other countries.

Fourth, Pakistan does not have a “no first-use’ (NFU) policy. It often indulges in the display of nuclear threats.

How India should strengthen credibility of the nuclear deterrence?

India has taken many steps in strengthening its nuclear deterrence capabilities, like creation of the tri-service Strategic Forces Command (SFC) and the PM-led Nuclear Command Authority in 2003. However, much more is required to be done:

Nuclear-powered submarines that are armed with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles are called SSBN. At present, India has just one SSBN, INS Arihant, which can be armed only with the 750-km range K-15 nuclear missiles.

Whereas, US, Russia and China have much larger SSBNs, which are armed with 5,000-kmplus range missiles.

What are the steps taken by India?

Work is continuously ongoing to strengthen nuclear triad (Water, Air, Land) in India:

Water based capabilities

• INS Arighat is expected to be commissioned this year.
• Construction of two 7,000-tonne SSBNs is also ongoing.

Air based capabilities

• Some Sukhoi-30MKI, Mirage-2000 and Jaguar fighter jets have been modified to enable them to deliver nuclear gravity bombs.
• Induction of the nuclear-capable Rafale fighters.

Land based capabilities

• country’s first intercontinental ballistic missile Agni-V, with a strike range of over 5,000-km, has been inducted.
• Prithvi-II (350-km), Agni-I (700-km), Agni-II (2,000-km) and Agni-III (3,000-km) missiles, have already been introduced.

Source: This post is created based on the article “GoI Will Have To Keep Buddha Smiling” published in Times of India on 5^th March 2022.