Dial down the security dilemma that sets vicious cycle in motion

Context: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has given a blow to post-1989 ‘liberal’ international order.

What was the post-1989 ‘liberal’ international order?

The global order rested on the premise that the world could rely on economic interests to spread prosperity and mitigate conflict. For instance, as the middle and rising powers such as Russia and China became richer, they would become more like the ‘West’. The gains made from trade would overshadow the geopolitical competition.

What is happening now?

The old order’s narrative is being replaced by geo-political ‘realists’. Their version of the world is characterized by zero-sum great-power competition, where national security and absence of global rule enforcers will lead mostly to conflict. In such a scenario, the issue of containing Russia and China becomes dominant. Other matters such as trade, climate change, poverty, public health take a backseat.

The central framework of ‘realists’ is based on the ‘security dilemma’. In this, attempts are made by each country to become more secure which further adds to insecurity of other countries. This then triggers countermeasures that creates the vicious cycle. For instance, Ukraine’s interest in entering a military alliance was to bolster its economy and security. But Russia saw it as inimical to Russia’s interest and took counter measures.

This dilemma is exacerbated when American and European policymakers talk about a “rules based international order”, but use it to fulfill their own interests and overlook their transgression of it. This leads to hostile views of the West. For instance, the exclusion of Chinese firms such as Huawei from the global market, fuel China’s concern that America wants to undermine its economy.

The dilemma further increases when great power seeks hegemony rather than accommodation. The US is guilty of this. For instance, it is expanding its military presence via NATO but leaves little room for other powers’ legitimate security concerns.

Is there an alternative to this order?

Yes, it is possible to create a stable world while remaining realistic about the nature of great-power competition. As in the long term a country cannot invest all its resources in military capabilities. They also need to focus on building their economy. For instance, South Korea after the 1960s focused on its economic strength to deal with its northern neighbor. For this end, the countries can:

1. Set national security goals which are not overtly offensive.
2. Convey their intentions and concerns better.
3. Reduce scope for misunderstanding and work for cooperation.

Source: This post is created based on the article “Dial down the security dilemma that sets vicious cycle in motion” published in Live Mint on 24^th March, 2022.