The neighbourhood in turmoil, lessons for India

Context: India’s foreign policy while dealing with the neighbouring countries in the South Asia Region has changed from 2016 to the present.

Rather than prevailing over any uncooperative neighbour using any means possible, India has now shifted towards using soft-power diplomacy, thereby improving ties with each of the South Asian countries.

However, it has virtually ignored the political developments in Pakistan.

What are the changes that have taken place in India’s foreign policy?

Foreign Policy pre-2016

The Government of India adopted a “muscular foreign policy” with the uncooperative South Asian neighbour. For example, India put Pakistan on notice on terror attacks. It also cancelled Foreign Secretary-level talks with Pakistan. Further, India has been alleged to have intervened in the Sri Lanka’s and Nepal’s domestic Politics.

Foreign Policy post 2016

India has abandoned its uniformly muscular “one size fits all” approach to the region. At present, the government has made peace with a much more consensual, and conciliatory policy in the neighbourhood.

– For example, India has not been held responsible in any of its neighbouring countries, namely Myanmar, Nepal, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka which have undergone electoral changes.

India has been improving its ties with each country (except Pakistan) in South Asia through high-level visits, extending development aid and lines of credit, and enabling a rush of soft power diplomacy.

India is focused on people in the neighbourhood rather than just those in power. For example, in Afghanistan, India negotiated with Pakistani officials to ensure it could send food grains for the Afghan people.

India has toned down rhetoric on domestic issues in the neighbourhood. For example, the Indian Government’s public reaction to Durga Pooja violence against Bangladesh’s Hindu minority in 2021.

Way Forward

India cannot maintain a silent or “neutral” position in relations to South Asian Countries. This is not in the interest of India.

– For example, India faces the direct impact of almost every crisis in South Asian country like refugee influx, economic crisis etc. Therefore, they must be watched more closely.

India should learn that the potent combination of populism, hyper-nationalism, religious majoritarianism, and a strident anti-elitism does not pay in the long run.

– For example, the popular leader may come to power, but their popularity can decline sharply and suddenly. For example, fall of K.P. Oli, Imran Khan and Mahindra Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka. This means nothing is forever, especially in a democracy.

The economy matters above all.

– For example, In Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka, the defeat of populists has come due to slowdown in growth, jobs and rising inflation, instead of the Opposition parties. The economic mismanagement has brought changes in the neighbourhood

India must survey the impact of new vulnerabilities on smaller neighbouring countries as the vulnerabilities could be exploited by global powers like China

New Delhi must find newer ways to energise regional groupings such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) Initiative.

Finally, the Indian government must learn that lack of consensus building in political culture let down the popular leaders in neighbouring democracies.

– For example, Rajapaksa, Oli and Khan turned their opposition into “the enemy”, and froze out the media, non-governmental organisations

Source: The post is based on an article “The neighbourhood in turmoil, lessons for India” published in the “The Hindu” on 21^st May 2022.