A global order caught up in a swirl of chaos

Source: This post is based on the article “A global order caught up in a swirl of chaos” published in The Hindu on 26th July 2022.

Syllabus: GS 2 – Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

Relevance: About the various issues that can alter world governance.

News: Ukraine-Russia conflict is one of the many strands currently altering the shapes of world governance.

What are the various challenges that can alter world governance?

Europe: Germany has steered European politics for almost two decades under Angela Merkel. But their new Chancellor has hardly any foreign policy experience. Without Germany’s steadying hand, Europe would face significant challenges.

The United Kingdom: The UK is facing a political crisis ever since it came out of the EU.

Food crisis: Ukraine and Russia were generally viewed as the granaries of the world. The conflict between them placed few countries to confront the food scarcity.

Other issues: The other issues include the foreign exchange crisis, the spiralling cost of energy and fertilizers. Many of these problems may have existed earlier but have been aggravated by the ongoing conflict.

The impact is being felt now well beyond Europe. Outside Europe, the conflict is beginning to take on a different dimension, leading to the emergence of new patchworks of relationships.

How did China stand benefitted?

China-Russia ties: China and Russia appear to have further cemented their relationship and the situation is shifting towards a formal alliance. China’s growing influence in the Pacific region, including in the Indo-Pacific, is further strengthened by the alliance with Russia.

China in the Middle East: The U.S.’s relations with Arab nations in West Asia appear to weaken. Russia and China are beginning to play key roles, with Iran as the fulcrum for establishing new relationships.

So various efforts of the United States, including the AUKUS (Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.) and the Quad, or the launch of another Indo-Pacific entity, viz., ‘Partners in the Blue Pacific’ (comprising the U.S., the U.K., Australia, New Zealand and Japan) might not yield results.

What does India need to do?

Most Asian nations appear unwilling to take sides in the event of a conflict including India.

Ties with China and Russia: India cannot ignore the situation created by the stronger bonds between Russia and China. India will need to determine whether Russia can be expected to play a role as a ‘trusted friend’.

Ties in the Middle-East: India-Israel relationship dates back to the 1990s, and the India-UAE relationship has flourished in the past couple of years. But India-Iran relations seem to have reached a stalemate.

India’s membership in the I2U2 indicates that this body could become a ‘feature’ of the West Asian region, just like the Quad was for the Indo-Pacific.

Ties with other neighbourhood countries:

Afghanistan: India urgently needs to come to terms with a Taliban Afghanistan. Its attempt to devise a working relationship with Taliban Afghanistan is as yet in a very nascent stage.

Sri Lanka: The democratic upsurge in Sri Lanka presents India with a fresh set of problems. India needs to ensure that its advent does not result in the emergence of an anti-India atmosphere in Sri Lanka.

India’s nuclear deterrence: There is a wide gap that exists today in regard to China and India’s nuclear deterrent capabilities. The U.S. strategists blame India for its voluntary ban on testing and its ‘no-first-use’ doctrine.

India needs to guard against such attempts to undo the carefully negotiated and structured nuclear policy and doctrine, and should not be tempted by any anti-China western move on this front.