SCO meet highlights China’s growing role in Inner Asia, India’s challenge

Source- The post is based on the article “SCO meet highlights China’s growing role in Inner Asia, India’s challenge” published in “The Hindu” on 26th April 2023.

Syllabus: GS2- Regional groupings and agreements

News– SCO meeting of defence ministers is taking place in New Delhi this week.

What are the internal contradictions in SCO?

Its ability to cope with the intra-state and inter-state conflicts among the member states is now under scrutiny. Russia’s war in Ukraine is raising questions about Moscow’s capacity to sustain primacy in its backyard.

China’s rise is increasing the prospects for Beijing’s emergence as the dominant force in inner Asia.

There are internal conflicts in the SCO. There are serious conflicts between India and China, Delhi and Islamabad, as well as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Preventing conflict between the member states and associates is a high priority for the SCO. But the forum’s record here is not impressive. Afghanistan’s internal instabilities have been a major driver for the SCO. But SCO was not able to play the role of the regional security arbiter.

In January 2022, there was a major internal upheaval in Kazakhstan. It was not the SCO, but the Russian army that intervened to stabilize the situation.

There are issues between Central Asian regimes and Russia. Russian leaders have often dismissed Central Asian states as artificial nations.

Vladimir Putin’s vision of the Russian world underlines Moscow’s special responsibility to protect Russian minorities beyond its formal borders. No Central Asian neighbour has endorsed the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is deeply entrenched within the Central Asian state system with strong ties to local elites and security establishments. Many Central Asians work in Russia and send valuable remittances home.

After Ukraine, the Central Asian states are looking to intensify their diversification strategies to reduce their reliance on Russia.

Kazakhs talk about “multi-vector diplomacy”. Some regional actors are seeking to expand their influence in Russia’s backyard. Turkey and Iran are two prime examples. There is also rising role of China in these countries

What are different viewpoints about China’s growing influence in Central Asia?

Some observers argue that China’s growing regional influence will come at Russia’s expense. Others point to the fact that Russia and China have drawn closer than ever before. They have little reason to quarrel over Central Asia.

Moscow’s muscle and Beijing’s money provide a sensible basis for their strategic division of labor in Central Asia. It will keep the Western powers out of the region.

A third argument agrees that China has no reason to replace Moscow as the main power in Central Asia in the near term. But it warns against underestimating Beijing’s long-term ambitions in the region.

Beijing provides explicit support to the sovereignty of the Central Asian states. As per Chinese President Xi Jinping, China will continue to resolutely support Kazakhstan in protecting its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.

What are options for India at SCO?

Delhi’s engagement with the SCO was premised on Russian primacy in the region and Moscow’s support of India’s regional interests. For India, a strong and independent Russia is critical for maintaining the inner Asian balance.

However, India is in no position to ensure Moscow’s strategic autonomy from Beijing. That depends on Russian strategic choices.

India must now protect its own interests in SCO amidst a rapidly changing regional power distribution in China’s favour.