Unchecked Kashmir box

Source- The post is based on the article “Unchecked Kashmir box” published in the “Business Standard” on 27th May 2023.

Syllabus: GS3 – Internal Security

News– Recently, the meeting of third Working Group of G20 on Tourism was held in Srinagar.

What are the major developments during the event?

The outcome was significantly positive in political and strategic terms. 17 of the 20 G20 countries attended, including four of the P-5, all of Europe. indeed, the largest Muslim nation, Indonesia.

But we also should look for complexities and unfinished projects. The absence of the three important Arab nations was a significant setback. Only one of these, Saudi Arabia, is a G20 member. The other two are invitees. This needs to be noted.

Saudi Arabia and India have improved relations in the past 15 years. Oman has had the oldest friendly ties with India. Egypt was also absent. President el-Sisi was the Republic Day chief guest this year.

Pakistan made a lot of efforts. Pakistan achieved partial success. But, it served a purpose for Pakistan. It was a reminder to India. The issue is far from settled for a section of the world matters for India.

It’s also an instrument in the hands of China to triangulate India through Pakistan. It was also a reminder that India should not declare victory too soon.

What are the developments after constitutional changes in J&K on August 5, 2019?

Much has been achieved on the ground, especially in the Valley, from law and order to infrastructure building. The most politically, strategically and internationally significant of these is the continued Union Territory status.

Four years after the shift, the “state” continues to be ruled directly by the Centre and the political process would still be held in abeyance.

India has not held fresh elections after constitutional changes. If this doesn’t happen in the near future, it is a letdown. A letdown not just for the people of Kashmir but the larger Indian cause as well.

Why are conducting elections in J & K important?

In late 1980s, separatist insurgency actively backed by Pakistan began. By 1991, when P V Narasimha Rao took charge and began cleaning up the mess.

Pakistan had been able to fully internationalise the issue. Pakistan’s campaign was three-pronged: Violation of human rights, the state being under military occupation, and denial of democracy and the right to self-determination.

Rao countered it with greater confidence and moral strength. As per him, there was no justification for any plebiscite when the Kashmiris were voting in increasing numbers to elect their own governments.

His greater confidence came from the fact that India had begun holding fair elections in Kashmir unlike the fixed ones in the past.

Rao also countered pressures on human rights by setting up the National Human Rights Commission and lifting the ban on foreign journalists visiting the state.

What should be the best course of action for India on J&K?

Today, India is much stronger than under Rao. First it is the economic power. Geo-strategic changes, the rise of China, a warring Russia, and the Indian embrace of the US have all placed India in the sweetest spot in history yet.

This is the time and opportunity to push the planned and promised moves. Not when this cycle might turn. In global affairs, the balance of power, alliances, all shift constantly.

India has worked hard at earning this sweet spot. None of the world powers and significant nations is raising any questions about the changes to Kashmir’s constitutional status. But it is risky and unnecessary to get complacent.

The idea that Jammu & Kashmir can be governed from New Delhi for eternity is tempting. The five countries who abstained reminded us that they still see Kashmir as a “dispute”.

Even the US passes resolutions asserting that all of Arunachal Pradesh is part of India, rejecting Chinese claims. But it is silent in Ladakh.

The next step for India should be, to restore statehood to Jammu & Kashmir and allow the resumption of robust political activity.