It’s not about the nuclear deal

It’s not about the nuclear deal

Iran nuclear deal; global politics

News:

1. Mr Chinmaya R. Gharekhan, a former Indian Ambassador to the United Nations opines that US pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal has little to do with the nuclear deal and more with the regime change in Tehran.

Important Facts:

2. Iran could stand in the way of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula according to Mr Gharekhan.
3. Three important and powerful States Israel, saudi Arabia and US have a congruence of Interest with respect to Iran which is seldom seen in today’s times.

Discontent in Iran:

• Large scale demonstrations and protests by iranian people against the regime.
• Living conditions are difficult
• Inflation is high
• According to Democracy in Iran: Why it Failed and How it Might Succeed by American academic Misagh Parsa, discontent in Iran has manifested in many forms namely:

1. Hundreds of Mosques do not have imams
2. Attendance at Friday prayers has gone down

• Some are converting into Christianity

1. Some are even converting to Bahaí faith, which is the largest non-Muslim community in Iran

• Misagh Parsa says that there might be a revolutionary upsurge in the future.

The timing of the US withdrawal from nuclear deal:

• Plans to tap into the present discontent of the people.
• Reimposition of severe sanctions would make life even more difficult for the people.
• People might take to the streets like in 1979 which led to the overthrow of the Shah’s regime.The Shah’s regime, similar to the present one, had strong military and oppressive secret services such as the Savak.

7. Trump is unlikely to listen to the appeals of any other country or grant exemptions from sanctions to any country transacting with Iran.
8. The Republicans are backing Trump. It is expected that the Democrats will eventually support Trump’s decision.

Maturity of Iran’s diplomacy:

• Iran has shown restraint in its actions.
• It did not declare the deal as dead but called other parties to renegotiate the deal.
• It did not announce the immediate resumption of uranium enrichment rather it said will be at industrial level.
• It has not so far called of International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA) inspections.

Changes in Iran after the withdrawal:

• Hardliners have strengthened.
• Hassan Rouhani, the President, considered as a moderate, has taken a defiant stance.

Predictions by Gharekhan:

• Iranian people, proud of their Heritage, will stand behind their regime.
• If difficult conditions prevail, people will be compelled to take to the streets.
• Iran will support the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria even more vigorously. It will be joined by Russia and Hezbollah of Lebanon.
• The Houthi rebels in Yemen will feel emboldened to take on the Saudi-led coalition.
• Iran will more directly intervene in Iraq and making the already non existent peace effort in Afghanistan difficult.
• If the regime does not collapse, Washington-Jerusalem-Riyadh axis will look for alternatives to bring it down.

13. India gave a well-drafted two sentence statement on Trump’s decision

• The first, striked a balance between Iran’s right to develop nuclear nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and the international community’s concern to ensure that its nuclear programme remains strictly peaceful
• The second, contained contained implicit disapproval of the American decision. It warned against strong military action.

India’s concerns:

• Trump is set out to reverse the major achievements of his predecessor like the Obamacare, North American Free Trade Agreement, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Paris Agreement and now JCPOA. This raises the concerns over USA’s commitment towards various deals.
• Energy imports from Iran will become difficult and expensive.
• The RBI might have to increase interest rates to contain inflation and step in to check the fall in rupee’s value.
• Any stringent action taken might hurt the popularity of the current government

15. Gharekhan advices India to remain vigilant in dealing with the Trump administration and not be prudent to assume that withdrawing from the nuclear deal is a special case.