Breaching the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold

Source-This post on Breaching the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold has been created based on the article “Highway to ‘climate hell’: What breaching the 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold could mean” published in “The Indian Express” on 10 June 2024.

Why in News?

Recently, Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that this May was the warmest on record. It has also been found that there is an 80% chance that the world will temporarily cross the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold in the next five years.

About Current Climate Situation

i)  May 2024 was the warmest May on record, with each of the past 12 months setting new warming records.

ii) The average global temperature last month was 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial reference period. From June 2023 to May 2024, the average temperature was 1.63°C above this baseline.

iii) The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts an 80% chance that at least one calendar year between 2024 and 2028 will see average temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

About the 1.5 Degree Celsius Threshold

i) Paris Agreement (2015) was signed by 195 countries, it aims to limit global temperatures to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational goal of capping warming at 1.5°C.

ii) Climate scientists generally use the 1850-1900 period as the baseline for measuring temperature increases.

iii) Breaching this threshold could lead to high risks for some regions and vulnerable ecosystems over extended periods.

iv) The 1.5°C limit is set to avoid the disastrous and irreversible impacts of climate change, which become more pronounced at 2°C warming.

 Consequences of Breaching the Threshold

i) Breaching 1.5°C does not instantly trigger a climate apocalypse but significantly increases the risk and intensity of adverse effects such as sea level rise, intense floods, droughts, and wildfires.

ii) The world is already experiencing severe heatwaves, coral bleaching, and other climate-related events exacerbated by rising temperatures.

iii) North and Central India experienced a heatwave with temperatures nearing 50°C, attributed to global warming.

iv) High Ocean temperatures triggered the fourth global mass coral bleaching event, affecting marine life and human communities dependent on reefs.

v)  Five major climate tipping points are at risk of being crossed due to warming, leading to irreversible changes.

UPSC Syllabus: Environment