A breakthrough and a gamble

A breakthrough and a gamble

North Korea’s offer

• Promised to discuss giving up nuclear arsenal if it’s security is assured
• To hold off from missile or nuclear tests while talks are under way
• To accept that the annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises will continue

Restrictions will continue on North Korea

South Korea and the U.S. have rightly promised that sanctions will remain firmly in place, until a deal is in place

Devil is in the detail

Security guarantee could lead to destabilization: What if North Korea seeks, as it has in the past, a deeper guarantee of security, the dissolution of the U.S.-South Korea alliance and the removal of American troops from the peninsula? Such a move would be hugely destabilising, potentially nudging South Korea towards acquiring nuclear weapons of its own

Kim Jong-un’s commitments are not reliable:

• In the past, the regime has signed up to deals and then walked through loopholes.
• In 2012, North Korea agreed to halt missile tests in exchange for U.S. food aid. But a few weeks later, it announced a satellite launch which uses the same technology as ballistic missiles

Regional Interests:  While Mr. Trump’s personal involvement is significant, it is important that diplomacy take into account the range of regional interests.

China’s role

Beijing must be brought along rather than kept in the dark because it’s role in enforcing sanctions is crucial, as it contributed to a huge fall in North Korean exports last year

Japan

Japan, which hosts U.S. bases and would be deeply affected in any regional war, is also a key partner.

Realistic Expectations

North Korea may have promised to discuss getting rid of his weapons, but this is unlikely to happen

Conclusion

American forces on the Korean peninsula and the alliance they uphold should not be treated as a bargaining chip. Mr. Trump should proceed with extreme caution