Populist wave: on the Italian elections

Populist wave: on the Italian elections

Context:

As Italians reject the mainstream parties, EU integration could take a hit

What has happened?

• In the recently held national elections, Italians have supported populist parties that were once considered fringe
• The most likely result of the national election seemed either a win by the centre-right coalition headed by Silvio Berlusconi, the former prime minister
• It can also be a hung parliament in which populist parties – the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the xenophobic Northern League would have considerable influence in the creation of a new government.
• The ruling centre-left Democratic party has already admitted defeat after coming in third. The party has managed just 19% of the vote.
• The largest vote share (32%) to a single party has gone to the Five Star Movement (M5S).
• The centre-right coalition, which includes the former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, the anti-migrant and Eurosceptic Lega and the far right Brothers of Italy, has secured 36%

What inferences can be drawn from the Elections?

• The election was a strong rejection of the incumbent, centre-left Democratic Party (PD)
• There is a strong anti-establishment undercurrent, with the largest vote share to a single party going to the Five Star Movement (M5S)
• Given the recent changes in Italian electoral law, which now combines proportional representation and the first-past-the-post system, a party or coalition will need at least 40% of the vote to form the government. Therefore, it is unclear who would become the next Prime Minister of Italy

Impact on the integration of EU

• Italy is going through a protracted period of political negotiations before a new government can start.
• The M5S, which had initially said it would hold a referendum on the euro, more recently toned down its stance. However, it continues to seek greater economic freedom from Brussels.
• It has taken a strong stance against migration and says it wants to improve governance.
• Luigi Di Maio, a leader of the M5S, who for long had said the party would go it alone, is now seeking partners to form a government.
• This could, for instance, mean the M5S partnering with the PD or the Lega.
• Barring a shared Euroscepticism, the M5S and the Lega mostly differ in their values.
• An M5S-Lega government would severely hamper France and Germany’s plans for greater integration across the EU.