From energy to infrastructure, IPCC lists four pathways to curb global warming

From energy to infrastructure, IPCC lists four pathways to curb global warming

News:

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), recently released a report in Seoul presenting four pathways to explore the possibilities of keeping the temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Important News:

2. The  demand to prepare a report was made by smaller and poorer countries, especially the small island states, which face the maximum risks from the impact of climate change.

3. In earlier reports, which have formed the basis of global action, the IPCC has said that climate change could have “irreversible” and “catastrophic” impacts if the global average temperatures were allowed to rise beyond 2 degrees Celsius.

4. The report, known as SR15, will be the main scientific input at the Talanoa Dialogue in the Katowice Climate Change Conference (COP24) in December 2018  in Poland.

5. IPCC assessments:

• The assessment refers to climate models that project “robust differences in regional climate characteristics” between ‘present-day and global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius’, and ‘between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius’.
• These differences include:

(i) increase in mean temperatures in both land ocean regions

(ii) hot extremes in most inhabited regions,

(iii) heavy precipitation in several regions, and

(iv) the probability of drought and precipitation deficits in some regions.

• The report also points out that “climate-related risks to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security, and economic growth” are projected to increase with global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius and increase further with 2 degrees Celsius.
• As per report, advantages of keeping the global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees celsius from pre-industrial levels:-
• By 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5 degrees compared with 2 degrees Celsius.
• Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5 degrees, compared with at least once per decade with 2 degrees Celsius.
• Coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5 degrees, whereas virtually all (over 99 per cent) would be lost with 2 degrees Celsius.
• Reduce the number of people exposed to climate-related risks and poverty by up to several hundred million by 2050.
• The same limit can result in reduced losses in yields of maize, rice, wheat and other cereal crops, particularly in Asia.

6. Varying amounts between 100 to 1000 gigatons (billion tonnes) of carbon dioxide would need to be removed from the atmosphere in these four pathways, the report says. The world currently emits about 47 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide every year.

7. Assessments of the new report:

• The IPCC report says that to limit the global temperature rise, interventions are required in the following areas namely:

(i)   Energy

(ii)  Land

(iii) Urban infrastructure (including transport and buildings)

(iv) Industrial systems

• The world would need to bring down its greenhouse gas to about half of its 2010 levels by 2030, and to net zero by about 2050 to keep the increase in global average temperatures to within 1.5 degrees Celsius of pre-industrial times.
• Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) would be used to compensate for residual emissions and, in most cases, achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius following a peak.

8. India’s Case:

The report also highlights the following impacts that developing countries like India would face if its warming touches 2°C as compared to 1.5°C:

• Higher risks from heavy precipitation events, including flooding and tropical cyclones of category 4 and 5, over the North Indian Ocean near the Arabian Sea.
• Increased number of hot days; Kolkata can expect annual conditions to be equivalent to that of the 2015 heat wave.
• Coastal flooding from sea level rise; high risk to coastal communities due to loss of coastal ecosystems, such as, communities around the Ganga-Brahmaputra delta and Mahanadi delta will be subject to increased vulnerability.
• It will dent India’s GDP by 2.8% and depress the living standards of nearly half the population by 2050, with people living in the severe “hotspot” districts of central India, particularly Vidarbha, staring at the prospect of an over 10% dip in economic consumption.
• Decreased food availability as a result of projected dip in crop production, particularly maize, rice, wheat and other cereal crops; decreased nutritional quality of rice and wheat.
• Rising temperatures creating severe negative impact on livestock due to changes in feed quality, spread of diseases, and lack of availability of water resources.
• Increased risk of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue.
• Extinction rates for plants, vertebrates, and insects will increase by 50 per cent.