[Answered] The ‘Axis of Upheaval’ in West Asia challenges Cold War-era power blocs. Analyze how this complex reality impacts the global order and shapes India’s non-aligned foreign policy approach in a multipolar world.

Introduction

The emerging “Axis of Upheaval” in West Asia, lacking formal alliances yet pursuing strategic autonomy, reflects a shift from Cold War bipolarity to multipolar fluidity, prompting recalibration of India’s foreign policy.

Body

Disintegration of Traditional Power Blocs

1. Unlike Cold War-era blocs (e.g., NATO vs. Warsaw Pact), today’s alignments—such as the Iran-Russia-China trio—are non-binding and interest-driven, lacking formal military treaties.
2. Iran’s isolation after Israeli and U.S. strikes in 2025, despite “strategic partnerships” with Russia and China, shows the limits of informal axes.
3. BRICS and SCO, while supportive diplomatically, have not intervened militarily—highlighting that economic and institutional ties do not translate to security guarantees.

Implications for the Global Order

1. This axis highlights a fracturing world order with a contest between U.S.-led hegemony and emerging powers demanding de-dollarisation and new multilateral institutions (e.g., expansion of BRICS, promotion of local currencies).
2. Russia’s inability to assist Iran due to its entanglement in Ukraine, and China’s silence despite its energy dependence on Iran, reflect strategic pragmatism over ideological alignment.
3. The realpolitik nature of modern alignments implies flexible, interest-based coalitions replacing rigid, treaty-bound blocs.

Strategic Calculations of China and Russia

1. China continues to import oil from Iran, supporting its economy under sanctions, but refrains from military entanglement, preserving its trade ties with the West.
2. Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine and the loss of military bases in Syria after regime change, limits its ability to project power in West Asia.
3. Both powers gain geopolitically by watching the U.S. stretch itself thin between the Indo-Pacific, Ukraine, and West Asia, potentially weakening its dominance.

Impact on India’s Foreign Policy

1. India follows a non-aligned but multi-aligned approach, maintaining strategic partnerships with the U.S., Israel, Iran, and Russia.
2. India’s balancing act: abstaining on UN resolutions critical of Israel, while continuing infrastructure partnerships with Iran (e.g., Chabahar Port), and maintaining energy ties with Gulf states.
3. The Ceasefire in West Asia and collapse of the “Axis of Resistance” shows the necessity of India’s strategic autonomy, allowing flexibility amid shifting power centers.
4. India’s cautious calls for “de-escalation” rather than judgment demonstrate a mature neutrality, vital in safeguarding its diaspora, energy interests, and regional connectivity ambitions (e.g., INSTC).

India’s Role in a Multipolar World

1. India’s emphasis on rule-based order, sovereignty, and peaceful diplomacy aligns with the Global South’s aspirations.
2. India’s leadership in forums like G20 (2023 Presidency) and BRICS+ positions it as a bridge-builder in turbulent regions, not a bloc loyalist.
3. As the geopolitical centre shifts, India’s ability to engage across ideological lines without deep entanglement provides diplomatic strategic space and leverage.

Conclusion