[Answered] Despite improved forecasting, floods take a worrying toll. Examine how the failure to use scientific knowledge exacerbates the socio-geographical vulnerabilities and policy gaps in effective disaster management.

Introduction

India is the second-most flood-prone country globally, with nearly 12% of its landmass vulnerable (NDMA, 2023). Despite advances in forecasting—IMD now provides 5-day probabilistic forecasts with 70% accuracy—inadequate application of science worsens the toll, highlighting systemic policy and governance gaps.

Science vs. Policy: The Persistent Disconnect

1. Improved Forecasting: IMD’s Doppler weather radars, GIS-based flood mapping, and ensemble forecasting models have enhanced early warning accuracy. ISRO’s satellite-based flood hazard zonation identifies high-risk zones.
2. Policy Gaps: Authorities often disregard alerts. Example: Kishtwar (2024) & Vaishno Devi (2024) cloudburst deaths despite IMD warnings. Uttarakhand (2013) disaster: HC directives to restrict floodplain construction ignored, leading to repeated vulnerability in 2025 Dharali floods.

Socio-Geographical Vulnerabilities Aggravated by Non-Compliance

1. Himalayan Fragility: Young fold mountains with unstable slopes, moraine-dammed lakes, and seismic activity magnify risks. Unregulated tourism and hydropower projects undermine slope stability.
2. Urban Flooding: Encroachment on floodplains, wetlands, and stormwater drains—e.g., Mumbai 2021 & Bengaluru 2022—converts heavy rain into catastrophe.
3. Floodplain Neglect: Case: Dharali market built on an alluvial fan, a natural safety valve, washed away in 2025 floods.
4. Agrarian Distress: Punjab-Haryana waterlogging shows how canal mismanagement + intense monsoon variability disrupts food security.

Climate Change Intensifies the Challenge

1. Changing Monsoon Dynamics: Extension of Western Disturbances into monsoon season—15 such systems in 2024—aggravates rainfall variability.
2. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs): Melting Himalayan glaciers form unstable moraine lakes (ICIMOD, 2023). Chamoli (2021) disaster—triggered by glacier-rock avalanche—highlighted climate-driven risks.
3. Global Evidence: Pakistan floods (2022)—displacement of 33 million—show climate vulnerability in South Asia.

Failure to Use Science: Missed Opportunities

1. Early Warning Systems: GSI completed landslide susceptibility mapping for Himalayas, but implementation at local level remains absent.
2. Forecast Utilisation: Lack of last-mile connectivity—alerts fail to reach vulnerable communities in time.
3. Institutional Fragmentation: Multiplicity of agencies (IMD, CWC, NDMA, state DMAs) creates coordination deficit.
4. Construction Policy: Despite floodplain zoning acts proposed since 1975, no nationwide legislation has been enforced.

Pathways Forward: Science-Led Disaster Governance

1. Strengthen Forecast Utilisation: Integrate IMD alerts with district-level SOPs, mock drills, and digital platforms.
2. Enforce Floodplain Zoning: Mandate eco-sensitive construction norms; penalise encroachments.
3. Invest in Early Warning Systems: Expand Doppler radar network; deploy community-based real-time sensors.
4. Nature-Based Solutions: Restore wetlands, river buffers; adopt Room for the River model (Netherlands).
5. Integrated Disaster Risk Reduction (Sendai Framework, 2015–30): Focus on resilience-building, not just relief.

Conclusion

As C. P. Snow observed in The Two Cultures, ignoring science imperils governance. India must transform improved forecasts into actionable policy, bridging the gap between knowledge and resilience to safeguard lives.