[Answered] Critically analyze the proposition that Pakistan’s geopolitical double game risks a diplomatic and economic disaster. Examine its implication for India.

Introduction

Pakistan’s oscillation between China and the United States amid its economic crisis—external debt exceeding $126 billion (IMF, 2024)—reveals a perilous geopolitical “double game” threatening regional stability and Pakistan’s credibility.

Pakistan’s Geopolitical Tightrope: The “Double Game”

1. Pakistan’s foreign policy has long been shaped by strategic rent-seeking — leveraging its geographical position for external patronage.
2. During the Cold War, it was a U.S. ally under SEATO and CENTO; post-9/11, a frontline state in the “War on Terror.” Simultaneously, it cultivated an “all-weather” alliance with China, which deepened through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with over $70 billion in investments.
3. Now, Islamabad seeks to play both sides — aligning with the anti-U.S. Moscow Format while offering Pasni Port to American investors, a move that undermines Chinese strategic interests and exposes Pakistan’s foreign policy incoherence.

Economic Fragility Driving Diplomatic Opportunism

1. Macroeconomic instability is the core driver. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves hover below $8 billion, its current account deficit is chronic, and over 40% of its budget goes toward debt servicing (World Bank, 2024).
2. To stave off default, Islamabad alternates between courting Chinese loans and IMF bailouts—a strategy the Brookings Institution terms “strategic oscillation economics.”
3. Offering Pasni Port to the U.S. aims to attract foreign direct investment and diversify funding beyond CPEC’s debt-heavy model. However, this transactional diplomacy erodes long-term strategic credibility.

Strategic Risks of the Double Game

1. Erosion of Trust with China: China perceives Pasni as a hedging manoeuvre against over-dependence on CPEC. Possible Chinese responses include slowing CPEC implementation, tightening debt conditions, or reducing military assistance, including intelligence sharing and technology transfers.
2. Unreliable U.S. Partnership: Washington views Pakistan through a transactional prism—valuing loyalty and counterterrorism cooperation. Dual posturing (e.g., joining Moscow Format rejecting foreign bases) reinforces Pakistan’s image as duplicitous, echoing its “double game” during the Afghan war.
3. Internal Fallout: Baloch insurgents see foreign projects as Punjabi military exploitation, intensifying unrest in Balochistan, where both Gwadar (Chinese) and Pasni (U.S.) ports lie close. This increases the risk of proxy conflicts between U.S.- and China-backed interests within Pakistan’s volatile western province.

Implications for India

1. Strategic Encirclement and Maritime Security: The Makran coast triangle—Gwadar (China), Chabahar (India-Iran), and Pasni (potentially U.S.)—creates a new maritime contestation zone. India must recalibrate its Indian Ocean strategy, enhancing cooperation with Iran and leveraging Chabahar as a counterweight.
2. Regional Instability and Spillover Risks: Instability in Balochistan could spill over to India’s western borders, with potential refugee influxes or cross-border militancy. The growing U.S.-China rivalry within Pakistan’s territory may turn South Asia into a geostrategic fault line impacting India’s Act East and Neighbourhood First policies.
3. Diplomatic Opportunity: Pakistan’s declining credibility opens space for India’s regional diplomacy, especially with Gulf states, Central Asia, and ASEAN. India’s balanced foreign policy—guided by strategic autonomy—offers a contrast to Pakistan’s transactional diplomacy, strengthening New Delhi’s global reputation.

Policy Suggestions for India

1. Deepen Chabahar–INSTC connectivity to bypass Pakistan.
2. Strengthen coastal security under SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) vision.
3. Continue multilateral engagement via QUAD and IORA to ensure maritime freedom and counter coercive influence in the Arabian Sea.

Conclusion

As Henry Kissinger noted, “nations that overplay their hand lose their balance.” Pakistan’s duplicity erodes its strategic autonomy, while India’s calibrated realism reinforces its role as a stable regional anchor.