News: UNEP’s “Emission Gap Report 2025: Off Target” says updated climate pledges slightly reduce warming projections but still leave the world exposed to serious risks.
About Emission Gap Report 2025
- It is an annual assessment that measures the gap between pledged emission cuts and pathways needed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
- Published by: It is published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
- 2025 Edition: It is the sixteenth edition of the Emissions Gap Report series.
- Aim: It aims to evaluate whether current and updated NDCs can limit warming and to identify what more is needed to close the emissions gap.
- Key Findings
- Warming outlook: With full NDC delivery, projected warming is 2.3–2.5°C this century; under current policies it is up to 2.8°C, a small improvement.
- Progress appears larger: One-third of the 0.3°C drop comes from methodological updates, while the planned US withdrawal in January 2026 will cancel 0.1°C.
- Emissions trend: Global greenhouse gas emissions rose 2.3% in 2024 to 57.7 GtCO₂e, hindering near-term mitigation.
- Pledges and participation: By 30 September 2025, only 60 Parties, covering 63% of emissions, had submitted or announced 2035 NDCs, showing limited engagement and ambition.
- Implementation gap: Even full NDC delivery cuts 2035 emissions 15% versus 2019, far from the 55% needed for 1.5°C and the 35% needed for 2°C; countries are not on track for 2030 targets.
- Overshoot risk: The report says 1.5°C will likely be exceeded temporarily and urges keeping any overshoot short and small.
- Major-emitter: G20 members account for 77% of emissions and their emissions rose 0.7% in 2024, demanding stronger leadership.
- Key Recommendations
- Countries should remove policy, governance, institutional, and technical barriers that slow mitigation and implementation.
- There should be a massive increase in financial and technical support to developing countries.
- The international financial architecture should be redesigned to unlock climate finance at the scale required.
- Nations should limit overshoot by delivering faster and larger near-term cuts, reducing damages and reliance on uncertain carbon-removal options.
