UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 3- Science and Technology- developments and their applications and effects in everyday life.
Introduction
Artificial Intelligence is emerging as the most decisive technology of our time. Its impact is comparable to the Industrial Revolution. Large Language Models are advancing at great speed, and rivalry between major powers is accelerating innovation. Yet global discussions on geopolitical rupture often overlook AI. The technology is already reshaping diplomacy, governance, and warfare. Its unchecked growth may fundamentally disturb the present international order.
The Rise of Artificial Intelligence as a Transformative Force
- AI as a Civilisational Shift: AI promises transformation on a scale comparable to past revolutions. Its expansion signals a deep structural change in global systems.
- Rapid Expansion of Large Language Models: Advanced LLMs are being deployed faster than expected. The success of recent Chinese models has intensified competition.
- Technological Rivalry Among Major Powers: Competition between the United States and China has become intense. This rivalry is driving rapid AI development.
- AI as the Overlooked Disruptor: The global order is described as facing rupture. However, AI remains the deeper force capable of overturning it.
- Limited Political Awareness: Many leaders underestimate the scale of AI’s disruption. The seriousness of the threat is not fully realised.
Global Consequences of the AI Surge
- AI as an Instrument of Diplomacy and Statecraft: AI is already used as a diplomatic tool. Nations are urged to build resilience and sovereign stacks.
- Global Debate Focused on Opportunity, Not Risk: Discussions at the World Economic Forum centred on how countries could exploit AI. The dangers of unchecked AI received limited attention.
- Strategic Competition Reflected in National Positions: Ashwini Vaishnaw rejected the idea that India is a secondary AI power. This reflects how AI status shapes national prestige.
- Sectoral Transformation Beyond Security: Digital transformation driven by AI is reshaping competitiveness in fintech and healthcare. AI also influences intelligence and governance systems.
- Judicial Risks from AI “Hallucinations”: The judicial fraternity warns that excessive reliance on AI may cause fabricated citations and improper judgments. This shows institutional vulnerability.
- Expansion Across Civilisational Networks: AI enhances surveillance, communication, analytics, and information flows. Few technologies affect so many domains at once.
- Shift from Human-Controlled to Autonomous Warfare: Warfare is moving from manned platforms to autonomous systems. AI systems can make decisions without direct human control.
- Deployment of Autonomous Military Technologies: AI enables unmanned aerial vehicles capable of autonomous flight, cyber weapons, and intelligent ground vehicles. Operational decisions are increasingly automated.
- Asymmetric Power Shift: The conflict between Ukraine and Russia demonstrates AI’s asymmetric power. Ukrainian forces used drones, night vision equipment, quad bikes, and improvised explosive devices to resist a stronger conventional army.
- Colossal Transfer of Power and Force Amplification: AI shifts power from traditional militaries to actors capable of using AI devices. It may become the greatest force amplifier in history.
- Risk of Autonomous Escalation: Autonomous drone swarms could launch large-scale attacks. The moment when AI becomes fully independent of human control remains uncertain.
- Integration of Multi-Domain Warfare: Space, cyber, and electronic warfare capacities are increasingly woven together. This fully transforms the nature of combat.
Way Forward
- Need for Effective Checks and Balances: AI enables rapid data processing and predictive analysis. Oversight is necessary to prevent uncontrolled expansion.
- Preventing Militarised Misuse: Military and security establishments may widely adopt autonomous systems. Regulation is essential to avoid destabilising escalation.
- Institutional Adaptation to Technological Speed: Institutions meant to govern technology risk being outpaced. Governance mechanisms must evolve alongside AI capabilities.
- Collective Responsibility of Scientists and Leaders: Political leaders and scientists must work together. AI must be guided to benefit humankind.
- Universal adoption of the Bletchley Declaration- The push must be made towards universal adoption of the Bletchley Declaration by all the countries.
- Invest in AI research and education- Governments, academic institutions, and industry stakeholders should allocate resources to R&D, and education in the field of AI. This will help create a well-informed workforce capable of addressing regulatory challenges and ensuring the safe and responsible deployment of AI technologies.
Conclusion
AI is transforming power structures, governance systems, and warfare at unprecedented speed. It strengthens capabilities but creates profound risks. Autonomous technologies may alter global stability and shift power beyond traditional control. Institutions are not yet prepared for this disruption. Responsible oversight, international cooperation, and ethical restraint are essential to ensure AI serves humanity safely.
Question for practice:
Examine how the rapid rise of Artificial Intelligence is transforming global power structures and warfare, and assess the risks it poses to the existing international order.
Source: The Hindu
