[Answered] “The developing situation and conditions in Yemen could cast a shadow over Indian interests in the region.” Comment.

Given the past history and current developments in Yemen, it can be argued that the conflict in Yemen is much more nuanced and complex. Arab Spring has changed the long established status quo of the region and further deepened the fissure between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The enmity between Saudi Arabia and Iran has reached an alarming point due to the sectarian divide in the region especially in the wake of the Arab Uprising. The most significant recent development in the Yemeni war has been the drone attacks on the two Saudi upstream oil facilities.

India’s Concern with Yemen situation:

1. Even though India has followed a policy of non-intervention in the internal affairs of other states as well as non-involvement in the security issues of other regions, it has not been able to isolate itself from the direct consequences of any security crisis in the West Asian region.
2. The energy security dimension and a seven million strong diaspora in the region have been significant factors in its policy formulation towards West Asia.
3. India’s security and the security of West Asia are interlinked and also extends to the challenges posed by terrorism and piracy. India is deeply concerned about the growing instability in the region as well as the spread of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
4. From India’s point of view, Yemen is important because of its strategic location between the Red and Arabian Seas.
5. Yemen is a member of the IOR-ARC and its cooperation in dealing with piracy in the Gulf of Aden has been significant. At the same time, Yemen has also been a source of oil and gas.
6. The developments are significant as most of India’s west-bound sea trade passes through Bab al Mandeb. India, therefore, needs to watch the evolving situation carefully and revive long-standing ties with the emerging stakeholders in Yemen, particularly along the southern coastal belt.
7. A highly volatile oil market and a tense regional situation would also affect India’s thriving economic engagements as well as its manpower there.
8. Additionally, situation could affect Saudi Aramco’s ongoing negotiations of two major upstream investments in India totalling over $30 billion with Reliance Industries and the proposed Ratnagiri Refinery, respectively.

India needs to take evasive actions in order to avoid being trapped in the worst case scenario. Such steps could include promoting India’s biofuel programme, expanding its strategic petroleum reserves and diversifying its crude sources away from the West Asia. India need to be cautious about the developing situation.