Heat waves to intensify in India from next year: Study

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  1. According to a recent study titled “Future Projections of Heat Waves over India from CMIP5 Models”, frequency of heat waves and their duration in India might increase from early 2020. The study has been conducted by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). It has been published in the journal Climate Dynamics.
  2. The study examined nine climate models to understand how the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves in India will increase. The models used in the study identified 54 heat-wave events in India between 1961 and 2005. The study predicts that this number is likely to increase with the probability of 138 heat-wave events between 2020 and 2064.
  3. The study has noted that El Nino Modoki could be responsible for the increase in heat waves in India. Further, depletion of soil moisture and transfer of heat from the earth to the atmosphere would also trigger them.
  4. A heat wave is a period of abnormally high temperatures-more than the normal maximum temperature that occurs during the summer season. Heat wave is considered if maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 40°C or more for Plains, 37°C or more for coastal stations and at least 30°C or more for Hilly regions.
  5. El Niño Modoki is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. Modoki is a Japanese word that means “same, but different”.
  6. The El Nino Modoki was named to represent the phenomenon in 2004 that had a maximum Sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central tropical Pacific, differing from the conventional El Nino. Modoki results in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific

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