A time to think fast

A time to think fast

Iran Nuclear deal;

Articles

1.Happymon Jacob,Associate Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, observes that Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is bound to have serious implications for the international system, and for India.

Important Analysis:

2.  Immediate impact of US withdrawal from Iran Nuclear deal on various countries

• U.S will be the least affected due to its almost non-existent business contacts with Iran.
• European Union countries will be moderately affected due to the business ties with Iran.
• Countries closer to the region, especially India, would be the most affected.
• The rules based global order has been undermined by the US administration’s habit of accusing other countries for being guilty of the same.

3. US’s withdrawal is unreasonable due to the following reasons:

• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has consistently maintained that Iran has complied with the structures of the JCPOA without fail.
•  Iran has also signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which prohibits it from developing nuclear weapons, and has agreed to ratify the IAEA’s Additional Protocol five years from now which will grant IAEA inspectors wide-ranging access to monitor nuclear-related activities in Iran.
• US’s argument that the provisions of the JCPOA will become less strict over the years and thus Iran will move towards nuclear-weapon capability is not a credible rationale for undoing the deal.
• USA cannot blame only Iran for its involvement in West Asian conflicts and “promotion of terrorism” as it is not the only country doing that.

4. Implications of US withdrawal:

• The global non-proliferation regime has taken a direct hit from U.S’s withdrawal from the deal.
•  Moral foundation of the non-proliferation regime is made up of norms, rules, persuasion and good faith. The inability of the great powers to stick to their commitment will dissuade non-nuclear weapons states from signing or abiding by new or existing agreements, protocols or regimes.
• North Korea will think twice before entering into any agreement with the untrustworthy Trump administration.
• It would create deep fissures in the Trans-Atlantic security partnership. Secondary sanctions may be imposed against those European companies which are engaged in business deals with Iran.
• The European have lost face in the global stage and their firm’s have faced financial losses.
• US’s withdrawal global security and governance architecture, and other multilateral arrangements and regimes.
• Hassan Rouhani, a moderate, might lose his standing in the country as hardliners pitch for more aggressive steps, including developing a nuclear weapon capability and more military engagement in the neighbourhood.
• Iran’s refusal to listen might prompt Israel and U.S. to carry out attacks against Iran leading to Iranian counter-strikes against American allies in the region, or even Israel.
• This would further destabilise the region.
• US has already made this error in the past.Its misguided military campaign against the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq turned out to be a huge geopolitical disaster.

5. Implications for India:

• A more unstable West Asia would automatically mean more difficult choices for New Delhi.
• More conflict in the region would affect the welfare and safety of Indian expatriates in West Asia, leading to a sharp decline in the remittances.
• Prices of crude oil would shoot up.
• In the past,U.S. war on Iraq had a debilitating impact on Indian workers and the West Asian remittances. India also had to abandon the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline in 2008 due to U.S. sanctions against Iran.
• The government’s efforts to maintain a fine balance between India’s relations with Iran on the one hand and with the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia on the other will be seriously tested in the days ahead.
• The new warmth between Iran and India could attract American ire
• Geopolitical realities are different from the last time US Sanctions were imposed. Not only US but with major regional player’s against Iran, india will not be able to make a clear choice this time.
• Chabahar port project is an important element of India’s Iran-Afghanistan-Central Asia strategy. With U.S. sanctions,India may find it hard to continue with this project.
• China might use this opportunity to bring together other countries to counter US’s action. If it does so, India might be cornered in the emerging world order.

6. Mr Happymon Jacob observes that India has a lot to lose both economically and geopolitically, and it will take deft diplomacy to adapt to the changing alignments.