Source: The post AI fears rise while Naxalite violence declines in India has been created, based on the article “The politics of insurgency, the decline of Naxalism” published in “The Hindu” on 16th August 2025
UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 3- Challenges to internal security through communication networks, role of media and social networking sites in internal security challenges.
Context: Predictions are fraught with risk, especially in today’s AI-driven world. Globally, terrorism persists and adapts with new threats, while in India, ideological militancy like Naxalism shows visible decline. The article contrasts global fears of AI-enabled terror with India’s apparent endgame against Naxalite violence through history, decline, and recent crackdowns.
For detailed information on Social and Political Impacts of AI read this article here
Enduring Uncertainty and the Perils of Prediction
- Leaders persist with uncertain forecasts: Across history, predictions often proved wrong, yet leaders continue making them. Only a few turn out to be accurate.
- Artificial Intelligence adds fresh volatility: AI increases unpredictability in global affairs. Its rapid development makes long-term outcomes even harder to anticipate.
- Continuity remains the safest bet: The wisest prediction in history has often been that things stay much as they are. Leaders should remember this lesson.
Global Terrorism: Persistence and Mutation
- A quarter century after 9/11: Even after 25 years, terrorism has not diminished. Copycat killings and extremist violence continue worldwide.
- Resurgence of IS-inspired attacks: Vehicle rammings linked to the Islamic State are growing. A recent attack in New Orleans reflected earlier similar incidents across Europe.
- Online radicalisation and protest spillovers: Digital platforms are fuelling lone-wolf assaults. Simultaneously, widespread anti-Israel protests offer fresh material for IS and al-Qaeda propaganda.
AI-Linked Doomsday Warnings
- Terrorists and bio weapons: Concerns rise that AI tools could help extremist groups access biological weapons, potentially causing mass casualties.
- Fear of misaligned AI: Experts warn misaligned AI might escape human control, unleashing unpredictable harm on society.
- Predictions of greater violence: Some foresee more destructive campaigns ahead, with AI enabling future terrorists to act with unprecedented scale and savagery.
India’s Divergence: Declining Ideological Terror
- Decline of militant movements: India’s experience contrasts global fears. A downward curve in ideologically motivated terrorism, especially Naxalism, is now visible.
- Official forecast of an endgame: The Union Home Minister suggested mid-2026 could witness the final end of Naxalite violence, marking an official acknowledgement of decline.
- Caution from past false dawns: India has seen similar hopes before—in the 1970s and later—but none lasted. An explicit declaration of nearing closure is unprecedented.
Naxalism’s Rise, Fragmentation, and Crackdown
- From revolution to fragmentation: Early leaders like Charu Mazumdar and Kanu Sanyal inspired youth. But revolutionary zeal quickly gave way to violence, splits, and shrinking regional bases in central India.
- Origins in global revolutionary fervour: The “Spring Thunder” of the 1960s drew students and intellectuals inspired by Mao, Ho Chi Minh, and Che Guevara. Yet the movement lost momentum within decades.
- Sustained offensive since 2024: Under Home Ministry direction, a large-scale campaign eliminated thousands of cadres. A CPI (Maoist) booklet itself admitted 357 deaths in one year, over a third women.
- Shrinking space and leadership crisis: The Dandakaranya region—spanning Bastar, Gadchiroli, Odisha, and Andhra—remains the epicentre. Internal disputes and loss of leaders, especially after Ganapathi’s 2018 removal, further weakened the insurgency.
Question for practice:
Examine how global fears of AI-enabled terrorism contrast with India’s experience of declining Naxalite militancy.
