[Answered] A ‘productive visit’ and the SCO’s internal contradictions highlight India’s diplomatic balancing act. Examine India’s strategic imperatives in engaging with a complex Asian geopolitical landscape.

Introduction

India’s Asian diplomacy faces multi-vector pressures: deep economic reliance on China, fraught Pakistan ties, Indo-Pacific turbulence, and emerging minilaterals. SCO-Tokyo outreach reflects Delhi’s need for strategic hedging and multi-alignment.

What are India’s Strategic Imperatives in Asia?

Managing China Challenge amid Economic Vulnerabilities

1. Trade imbalance: China-India trade $118B (2024); Indian exports $15B, imports $103B.
2. Technology and supply chain dependence: Rare earth magnets, tunnelling equipment, electronics—critical gaps exposed.
3. Border tensions: Galwan 2020, Depsang, Demchok; LAC standoffs undermine trust.
4. Diplomatic need: Tianjin meet provides space to negotiate “rules of the road” for stability and de-escalation, even as Beijing expands South Asia’s orbit via Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and minilaterals.

SCO as a Contested Platform

1. Contradictions: Founded for counterterrorism and Eurasian stability, but China shields Pakistan; no censure for terror proxies.
2. Pakistan factor: Islamabad seeks visibility; allies Turkey, Azerbaijan present; India’s terror concerns remain unaddressed.
3. Limited convergence: India rejects BRI but uses SCO for connectivity (INSTC, Chabahar) and Central Asia outreach.
4. Regional presence: Almost all South Asian neighbours (Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Myanmar) tied to SCO, highlighting India’s need to avoid marginalisation in continental forums.

Balancing Continental and Maritime Orientations

1. Geography limits: Himalayan disputes constrain India’s continental projection.
2. Maritime strengths: Tokyo visit deepens India-Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership; defence, technology, and supply chain cooperation.
3. Indo-Pacific synergies: QUAD, Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI), critical tech and rare earth collaboration; Tokyo provides hedge against China.

US Factor and Trade Pressures

1. Current strains: Tariffs, trade disputes with Washington; but US still India’s top export market ($88B, 2024) and surplus.
2. Energy ties: Russian oil purchases useful but politically sensitive (Trump administration leverage).
3. South Asia competition: US and China intensifying regional influence; India risks losing primacy if not agile.

Strategic Autonomy and Multi-Alignment

1. India’s policy emphasises issue-based partnerships, non-bloc politics, leveraging contradictions for gain (Russia ties, SCO membership, QUAD).
2. EAM Jaishankar: “We will not join any alliance but will engage all for national interest.”

Way Forward

1. Reduce vulnerabilities: Diversify critical imports, promote Atmanirbhar Bharat, invest in rare earths, semiconductors, tunnelling tech.
2. Regional outreach: Strengthen BIMSTEC, revive SAARC selectively; deepen Central Asian energy ties.
3. Counterbalance: Expand QUAD, IPEF, Japan, ASEAN links.
4. Diplomatic signalling: Use SCO for dialogue, not endorsement; showcase India as rule-shaper, not rule-taker.

Conclusion

As Henry Kissinger’s World Order notes, stable power equations need “balance and flexibility.” India’s Asian journey demands strategic patience, multi-alignment, and resilient capabilities to safeguard autonomy in a fluid geopolitical theatre.