Contents
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Dual-track diplomacy
- 3 Political fluctuations: Contemporary challenges
- 4 Institutional resilience: Defence cooperation as backbone
- 5 Technology and innovation: TRUST and beyond
- 6 Multilateral institutionalisation: The Quad effect
- 7 Science and space cooperation: Strategic spillovers
- 8 Geopolitical and economic headwinds: How institutions buffer shocks
- 9 Limitations and risks
- 10 Way forward: Deepening the institutional track
- 11 Conclusion
Introduction
India–U.S. relations reflect a dual-track diplomacy, where despite trade frictions and summit delays, defence, technology and institutional cooperation deepen, anchoring ties amid Indo-Pacific uncertainty and global power realignments.
Dual-track diplomacy
- Political track: Characterised by summit diplomacy, trade negotiations and signalling, often vulnerable to electoral cycles, tariffs and third-country dynamics.
- Institutional track: Driven by bureaucracies, armed forces, regulators and research agencies, ensuring continuity through rules-based cooperation and long-term strategic convergence.
Political fluctuations: Contemporary challenges
- Trade frictions: U.S. tariffs on Indian exports and secondary sanctions linked to Russian crude oil purchases weakened economic confidence in 2025.
- Strategic signalling: Perceptions of a U.S.–China tactical thaw and renewed U.S.–Pakistan engagement generated unease in New Delhi.
- Diplomatic optics: Postponement of the Quad Leaders’ Summit illustrated visible political strain despite ongoing engagements.
Institutional resilience: Defence cooperation as backbone
- Defence Framework Agreement 2025: A 10-year roadmap enhancing coordination, interoperability, information-sharing and joint capability development, insulated from short-term politics.
- Foundational agreements: LEMOA (2016): Logistics interoperability
COMCASA (2018): Secure communications. BECA (2020): Geospatial intelligence sharing
Together, these institutionalise military cooperation beyond leadership changes.
Technology and innovation: TRUST and beyond
- TRUST initiative: Focuses on trusted supply chains, secure critical technologies and defence-industrial collaboration, responding to vulnerabilities exposed by China-centric manufacturing.
- INDUS-X (2023): Connects start-ups, MSMEs and defence primes, enabling co-development and co-production, aligning with Atmanirbhar Bharat.
- HAL–GE jet engine deal (2025): Billion-dollar agreement symbolising technology transfer and industrial deepening, critical for India’s aerospace autonomy.
Multilateral institutionalisation: The Quad effect
- Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meetings: Continued regularly, advancing cooperation on maritime security, cyber resilience, HADR and critical technologies.
- Counterterrorism Working Group: Sustains operational focus on non-traditional threats.
Ports of the Future Initiative (2025): Reinforces infrastructure diplomacy, countering debt-led models through quality, transparent investments.
Science and space cooperation: Strategic spillovers
- NISAR satellite (NASA–ISRO, 2025): Enhances disaster management, agriculture planning and climate resilience, showcasing civilian-tech synergy.
- Strategic value: Builds trust, data-sharing norms and people-to-people institutional linkages beyond defence.
Geopolitical and economic headwinds: How institutions buffer shocks
- China factor: Shared concerns over Indo-Pacific militarisation sustain convergence despite tactical divergences.
- Economic uncertainty: Institutional defence contracts and technology ecosystems are less tariff-sensitive than merchandise trade.
- Strategic autonomy: India leverages institutions to cooperate without formal alliances, preserving policy flexibility.
Limitations and risks
- Regulatory asymmetries: Export controls and IP regimes still constrain technology absorption.
- Over-securitisation: Excessive defence focus risks neglecting trade, mobility and climate cooperation.
- Political neglect: Prolonged summit-level disengagement may weaken public and parliamentary support.
Way forward: Deepening the institutional track
- Whole-of-government approach: Align defence, commerce, space and digital ministries.
Beyond defence: Expand institutional frameworks into semiconductors, AI governance, clean energy and education. - Trust-building: Regular strategic dialogues to prevent institutional drift during political downturns.
Conclusion
Echoing Kautilya’s emphasis on durable alliances and President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam’s vision of technology-led partnerships, India–U.S. ties endure because institutions stabilise strategy when politics falter.


