[Answered] Analyze the factors that have contributed to the strain in the global nuclear order since the Cold War, with a focus on the changing geopolitical landscape and the role of major powers.

The Global Nuclear Order was created in the shadow of the Cold War, with the U.S. and the U.S.S.R., leading the Western and the Socialist blocs, respectively. The need to create a new order was felt as two nuclear superpowers needed bilateral mechanisms to prevent tensions from escalating to the nuclear level & as nuclear weapons are dangerous their spread should be curbed.

Factors that have contributed to strain in nuclear order

• Power Shifts and Multipolarity: The post-Cold War era saw the emergence of several power centres, which resulted in the world becoming multipolar as opposed to bipolar. Establishing standards and conventions have been challenged by the comeback of Russia as a significant role and the rise of new nuclear-armed states like North Korea, complicating the global nuclear picture.
• Arms Control Agreement Erosion: The tension has been exacerbated by the deterioration of important weapons control accords, including the Open Skies Treaty and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Fears that the nuclear arms control system may fall apart have increased as a result of key powers, particularly the US, pulling out of these accords.
• Modernization and Technological Advancements: To improve their nuclear arsenals, major nations like the United States, Russia, China, and others have conducted modernization programs. Concerns about an arms race and the possibility of upending the international nuclear order have been raised by the development of new and more advanced nuclear technology.
• Regional conflicts and challenges to proliferation: The global nuclear order has been stressed by ongoing regional wars and the proliferation of nuclear weapons in some regions, most notably North Korea and Iran. The inability to effectively handle these issues has raised international tensions and created a sense of unease.
• Geopolitical Rivalries and Strategic Competition: The possibility of nuclear weapons being used in regional conflicts has become more pressing due to geopolitical rivalries and strategic competition among major powers, especially the United States, Russia, and China. The efforts to promote international collaboration on nuclear disarmament have been hampered by the return of great power competition.
• Changes in US Nuclear Policy: Other nuclear-armed governments are becoming concerned about changes in US nuclear policy, which include a greater focus on low-yield nuclear weapons and a more accommodating attitude to nuclear deterrence. The stability and perceived credibility of the international nuclear order are affected by this change.
• Diplomatic deadlocks and trust deficits: The advancement of nuclear disarmament measures has been hampered by diplomatic deadlocks and trust deficits among major states. Tensions are increased by a lack of communication and collaboration, which makes it more difficult to reach an agreement on non-proliferation and arms control measures.

Conclusion

The fundamental shift in US domestic policy with a focus towards “inwards” rather than acting as a security guarantor to its allies has raised questions in the minds of its allies about its ‘extended deterrence’ guarantees, especially in East Asian nations like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Addressing these factors requires renewed diplomatic efforts, commitment to arms control agreements, and a multilateral approach to foster a more stable and secure global nuclear order.