[Answered] Critically analyze the geopolitical implications of the Saudi-Pakistan pact, termed a ‘dodgy insurance policy’, for regional stability and India’s strategic interests.

Introduction

The 2025 Saudi–Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), signed in Riyadh, signals tactical alignment but raises concerns. Amid volatile West Asia, it embodies a fragile hedge, impacting regional stability and India’s strategic calculus.

Geopolitical Implications of the Saudi–Pakistan Pact

1. Symbolism over Substance: Historically, Saudi–Pakistani defence ties (1951 onwards) were marred by mistrust — from Shia troop exclusions to Pakistan’s refusal to aid Riyadh during the 1990 Kuwait crisis or 2015 Yemen war. SMDA appears more optical reassurance than credible defence commitment.
2. U.S. Factor and Strategic Hedging: Washington’s indirect role in shaping SMDA reflects declining U.S. credibility in Gulf security (e.g., muted response to Israel’s 2025 strike on Qatar). Riyadh views SMDA as a stop-gap insurance while awaiting stronger U.S. guarantees.
3. Nuclear Shadow: Pakistan’s nuclear weapons capability raises concerns of a potential “nuclear umbrella” for Riyadh if Iran advances its programme. While overt transfer is improbable due to Israeli red lines, nuclear latency via covert technology sharing echoes the A.Q. Khan precedent.
4. China Variable: Pakistan’s “all-weather” partnership with China complicates Riyadh’s military calculus. SMDA may indirectly expand Beijing’s influence in West Asia through Pakistani channels, creating a triangular competition with U.S. and India.
5. Impact on Regional Stability: Risks of militarising Gulf rivalries: Iran may perceive SMDA as containment, escalating its strategic partnership with Russia and China. Could weaken fragile Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) unity, already strained by Qatar blockade (2017–21).

Implications for India’s Strategic Interests

1. Energy Security Concerns: India is the third-largest oil importer; Saudi Arabia supplies ~18% of its crude. Any Riyadh–Islamabad defence tilt could complicate energy diplomacy amidst global volatility.
2. Diaspora and Remittance Linkages: 2.6 million Indians live in Saudi Arabia, sending over $10 billion in remittances annually (RBI data, 2023). Ensuring diaspora security requires New Delhi to stay diplomatically relevant in Riyadh.
3. Defence and Counter-Terrorism Cooperation: Since 2014, India–Saudi ties have expanded into defence exercises (e.g., Al-Mohed Al-Hindi Naval Exercise, 2021) and intelligence sharing on counter-terrorism. SMDA may pressure Riyadh to balance, not tilt, given India’s growing weight.
4. Geoeconomic Balancing: Riyadh plans $100 billion investment in India, though progress remains limited. Senior Saudi officials acknowledged India as a nuclear power, reassuring New Delhi of “parallel balancing” despite SMDA.
5. Strategic Vigilance across Arabian Sea: SMDA underscores need for India to deepen ties with GCC (especially UAE, Oman) and multilateral platforms like IORA and BIMSTEC to safeguard its West Asian interests.

Way Forward for India

1. Pursue multi-vector diplomacy with Riyadh while reinforcing energy and defence partnerships.
2. Enhance maritime security footprint in Arabian Sea and Western Indian Ocean.
3. Leverage strategic autonomy to balance U.S., Saudi, and Iranian sensitivities, avoiding zero-sum alignments.

Conclusion

Alliances without shared threat perceptions breed fragility. For India, strategic pragmatism, vigilant diplomacy, and deeper Gulf partnerships are essential amid Saudi–Pakistan’s dodgy insurance pact.