[Answered] Critically evaluate the fossilisation of Indian agriculture amidst geopolitical volatility. Analyze the need for a shift towards energy-resilient and sustainable farming models.

Introduction

India’s agriculture, once circular and biomass-based, now consumes over 30 mt fertilisers and massive diesel inputs. The 2026 Iran-Israel conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure have now exposed its Achilles’ heel: a nation feeding 145 crore people on geopolitically vulnerable inputs it neither produces nor controls.

Understanding Fossilisation of Indian Agriculture

The Green Revolution transformed Indian farming into an input-intensive system reliant on fossil fuels:

1. Mechanisation surge: From ~5,000 tractors at Independence to over 12 million today; farm power now overwhelmingly mechanical.
2. Chemical dependence: Fertiliser use rose from 69,800 tonnes (1950-51) to ~32.9 mt (2024-25), dominated by urea and DAP.
3. Energy linkage: Diesel for irrigation, petroleum-based pesticides, and gas-based fertiliser production tightly couple agriculture with global energy markets. This fossilisation improved productivity but created structural external dependence.

Geopolitical Volatility

Recent West Asian tensions highlight systemic vulnerabilities:

1. Supply chain chokepoints and Import dependence: Strait of Hormuz disruption affects ~⅓ of global fertiliser trade. India imports over 50% of natural gas and nearly all potash and phosphates.
2. Price shocks: Export restrictions by Russia and China amplify shortages and subsidy burdens. El Niño compounds the crisis by disrupting monsoons, reducing crop yields, and triggering supply-side inflation.
3. Fiscal strain: Fertiliser subsidy (over ₹1.7 lakh crore in recent budgets) becomes volatile, impacting macroeconomic stability. Thus, Indian agriculture is no longer insulated but globally exposed.

Need for Shift to Energy-Resilient and Sustainable Models

1. Bio-based Circular Agriculture: Use of crop residues, dung, and biomass for biofertilisers and biogas. India’s ~300 million-tonnes-per-annum  manure can produce ~55 billion-cubic-meters biomethane, potentially replacing LNG imports in fertiliser production.
2. Renewable Energy Integration: PM-KUSUM scheme, solar pumps reduce diesel dependence. Solarisation of irrigation decouples farming from oil price shocks.
3. Input Efficiency & Innovation: Nano-urea, precision nutrient management reduce fertiliser intensity. AI and IoT for optimising water and input use.
4. Diversification & Agroecology: Natural farming, organic inputs, crop diversification enhances soil health and reduces import reliance.
5. Institutional & Policy Reforms: Shift subsidies from fertilisers to income and sustainability incentives. Promote carbon credits and payments for ecosystem services and strengthen domestic fertiliser capacity and alternative feedstocks (green ammonia).
6. Bharatiya Prakritik Krishi Paddhati (BPKP): Andhra Pradesh’s ZBNF, now scaled to 6 lakh farmers, reduces chemical input cost by 60–70%, using cow dung/urine-based preparations (Jeevamrit, Bijamrit) as nutrient and pest management.

Challenges in Transition

1. Yield Concerns: Moving away from the fossil-fuel model too rapidly may lead to an initial dip in productivity, threatening food security for 145 crore people.
2. The Livestock Deficit: The bovine-based model requires a healthy, productive cattle population, which faces challenges like shrinking grazing lands and diseases like Lumpy Skin.
3. Economic Inertia: The entire machinery of credit, subsidies, and extension services is currently geared toward the chemical-fossil model.

Way Forward

1. Accelerate integration of Green Hydrogen Mission with fertiliser production.
2. Expand natural farming coverage through targeted incentives and extension services.
3. Invest in R&D for low-input, high-yield varieties and precision agriculture.
4. Strengthen inter-ministerial coordination between Agriculture, Energy, and Environment.
5. Provide transition support for small farmers through credit and insurance schemes.

Conclusion

As highlighted in M.S. Swaminathan’s vision of evergreen revolution, future food security lies in productivity with sustainability; India must delink farms from fossil volatility to ensure resilient, sovereign agriculture.