[Answered] Despite a cautious thaw, old mistrust and new asymmetries persist in India-China ties. Critically analyze the challenges and prospects for a sustained revival of the ‘Chindia’ spirit.

Introduction

India–China relations, marked by $118.4 billion trade (2024) and lingering border disputes post-Galwan, oscillate between cooperation and confrontation, making the revival of the ‘Chindia’ spirit both vital and precarious.

Historical and Symbolic Foundations

1. Ancient Engagements: Buddhism, Nalanda exchanges, and Silk Road trade cemented civilisational linkages.
2. Modern Rekindling: From Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai (1950s) to the “Chindia” vision (Jairam Ramesh, 2005), cooperation was framed as a pathway to Asian Century.
3. Current Reset: Modi–Xi meeting at the SCO, resumption of direct flights, pilgrim access to Tibet, and people-to-people ties mark cautious reconciliation.

Persistent Challenges and Mistrust

1. Border Dispute: No progress on restoring status quo ante April 2020 in Eastern Ladakh; Line of Actual Control remains volatile.
2. Trade Asymmetry: India’s trade deficit with China crossed $101 billion in 2024 (DGFT data), worsened by non-tariff barriers against Indian pharma, IT, and agro products.
3. Strategic Asymmetry: China’s GDP ($18 trillion) is nearly 5x India’s; military spending ($224 billion in 2023, SIPRI) dwarfs India’s $81 billion.
4. Geoeconomic Pressures: US tariffs (50% on Indian exports, 30% on Chinese goods) push India–China together, but Beijing’s dominance in rare-earths (60% global supply) undermines India’s tech ambitions.
5. Trust Deficit: Foxconn’s exodus of 300 Chinese engineers shows vulnerability in India’s electronics supply chains.

Prospects for Reviving ‘Chindia’

1. Economic Interdependence: China is India’s largest trading partner; supply chain complementarities—Indian IT, pharma, services with Chinese hardware and manufacturing—can create synergies.
2. Multilateral Platforms: BRICS+, SCO, and G20 provide forums for constructive cooperation, reducing bilateral friction.
3. Green and Energy Security: Joint ventures in solar, EVs, rare-earth recycling, and thorium research could align with India’s Net Zero 2070 pledge and China’s 2060 carbon neutrality target.
4. Strategic Autonomy: Both nations advocate multipolarity and resist Western hegemony, creating scope for issue-based alignment.

Critical Analysis: Can ‘Chindia’ Endure?

1. Structural Imbalances: China’s BRI projects in South Asia (CPEC in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka) constrain India’s strategic space.
2. Security Dilemmas: QUAD and Indo-Pacific strategies heighten Beijing’s suspicions; India views Chinese military infrastructure in Tibet as coercive.
3. Mutual Leverage: India’s digital market (over 800 million internet users) and demographic dividend are assets, while China’s capital and technology remain critical.
4. Middle Path: Sustained engagement requires confidence-building measures (CBMs), institutionalized border mechanisms, trade diversification, and gradual trust restoration.

Conclusion

Cooperation between major powers hinges on managing differences. For India and China, reviving ‘Chindia’ demands pragmatism, reciprocity, and calibrated strategic patience.