[Answered] Despite global terrorism predictions, ideologically-oriented insurgency is declining in India. Examine the factors behind this trend and the new security challenges it presents for India’s internal security framework.

Introduction

While global fears of AI-enabled terrorism and bio-weapons dominate discourse, India presents a contrasting picture with declining ideologically-driven insurgency, especially Naxalism, reshaping its internal security dynamics and future challenges.

Decline of Ideologically-Oriented Insurgency in India

Originated in Naxalbari (1967), inspired by Maoist revolutionary zeal. Peaked in early 2000s, affecting 223 districts across 20 States (2008, MHA data). Current footprint reduced to about 45 districts (2023, MHA report), concentrated in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.

Key Factors Behind Decline:

1. Sustained Security Operations: Coordinated efforts like SAMADHAN doctrine, specialized forces (Greyhounds in Andhra Pradesh, CRPF’s CoBRA units).
2. Leadership Crisis in CPI (Maoist): Removal of Ganapathy (2018), internal splits, and shrinking cadre strength.
3. Development Initiatives: Road connectivity, digital penetration, Aspirational Districts Programme, expansion of banking and welfare schemes in tribal belts.
4. Community Engagement: Surrender and rehabilitation policies; over 20,000 Naxals surrendered between 2014-2022.
5. Intelligence and Tech Integration: Use of drones, satellite imagery, and centralised databases for tracking movements.
6. Other Ideological Declines
   • Insurgency in Northeast: Peace accords with Bodo, Naga, and Karbi groups; AFSPA revoked in large parts of Assam, Manipur, and Nagaland.
   • Punjab Militancy: Virtually eradicated since 1990s, though Khalistani elements occasionally surface from abroad.

Emerging Internal Security Challenges

1. Evolving Nature of Terrorism: Shift from ideology to identity, grievance, and opportunistic violence. Rise of “lone wolf” attacks inspired by global jihadist narratives (IS, al-Qaeda).
2. Urban and Cyber Dimensions: “Urban Naxals” narrative blurs lines between dissent and insurgency, risking over-securitisation. Cyber radicalisation through encrypted platforms; IS modules busted in Kerala, Telangana, Karnataka.
3. AI and Tech-Enabled Threats: Drone-based cross-border smuggling of arms and narcotics in Punjab and Jammu. Concerns over AI-enabled disinformation, deepfakes, and bio-security threats.
4. Communal Polarization and Identity Politics: Radicalisation among vulnerable groups; communal riots and hate-driven violence can trigger localised unrest.
5. Cross-Border Support Networks: Pakistan-backed militancy in J&K persists, though reduced; nexus with narcotics and hawala financing. Diaspora-driven Khalistan propaganda through Canada, UK, and social media platforms.

Conclusion

India’s decline in ideological insurgency reflects successful statecraft, security, and development synergy. Yet, emerging tech-enabled, identity-based, and transnational threats demand adaptive, intelligence-driven, and community-oriented internal security frameworks.