| Introduction: Contextual Introduction Body: Implications of dam on water security & regional stability in India & measures to protect its interest. Conclusion: Way forward |
China’s announcement of constructing a dam on the Yarlung Zangbo near the China-India border raises significant concerns for India’s water security, regional stability, and sovereignty. This dam is part of China’s larger expansionist strategy, underscoring its intent to consolidate control over transboundary resources and exert strategic leverage in South Asia.
Implications for India
- Reduced Water Flow and Siltation: The dam is expected to alter the downstream flow of water and sediment, adversely impacting agriculture, fisheries, and biodiversity in India’s northeastern states and Bangladesh.
- Flood Vulnerabilities: Uncontrolled water release during monsoons or geopolitical tensions could trigger catastrophic floods, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.
- Dependence on Chinese Data: India’s reliance on hydrological data shared by China makes it vulnerable to misinformation or lack of transparency during critical periods.
- Strategic Leverage: Control over the river flow gives China a strategic tool to exert pressure on India during disputes, adding a new dimension to bilateral tensions.
- Regional Tensions: The dam threatens to destabilize South Asia by exacerbating transboundary disputes with countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan, all of whom share river systems with China.
Measures India Can Adopt to Safeguard Its Interests
- Strengthen Bilateral Mechanisms: Revitalize Sino-Indian dialogue on transboundary rivers under the Sino-Indian Expert-Level Mechanism to ensure transparency and mutual trust.
- Leverage International Norms: Advocate for adherence to international conventions like the UN Watercourses Convention and Helsinki Rules on equitable and reasonable utilization of transboundary rivers.
- Foster Regional Cooperation: Collaborate with Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal to form a South Asian water-sharing mechanism akin to the Mekong River Commission.
- Integrated Water Management: Establish storage facilities and flood control infrastructure in the northeastern states to counter the risks posed by sudden water releases.
- Satellite Surveillance: Use satellite imagery and remote sensing technologies to monitor China’s dam construction and assess its impacts on water flow and sedimentation.
- Hydrological Research: Conduct detailed impact assessments and develop simulation models to prepare for potential disruptions in river flow.
- Promote Collective Action: Lead initiatives for a South Asian Water Commission to address shared challenges, ensuring a united response to China’s unilateral actions.
- Diplomatic Coordination: Engage with Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh to create a unified front, emphasizing the shared risks of China’s hydropower projects.
Conclusion
A unified South Asian approach will further bolster India’s efforts to counterbalance China’s growing influence and secure its long-term interests.
