| Introduction: Contextual Introduction Body: Implications of a recent standoff between 2 nations and influence on future engagement. Conclusion: Way forward |
The recent diplomatic standoff between India and Canada over the Hardeep Singh Nijjar affair marks a significant low in bilateral relations, with public recriminations escalating into political attacks. This situation poses a challenge to India’s future diplomatic engagements, especially with the West, where the emphasis on democratic values, security, and sovereignty often intersects with complex bilateral issues.
Implications of the Diplomatic Standoff
- Deterioration of Bilateral Ties: India-Canada relations had already been strained due to longstanding concerns over Canada’s perceived indifference to pro-Khalistan activities within its borders. This deterioration makes it difficult to restore normalcy to ties, as both nations have engaged in tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions and strongly-worded public statements.
- Breakdown of Diplomatic Norms: The allegations, particularly around Indian diplomats’ involvement in “criminal activities” related to the Nijjar case, have introduced a dangerous precedent. This creates an environment of distrust and complicates future cooperation on security and intelligence matters.
- Strain on People-to-People Relations: One of the most immediate impacts of the diplomatic standoff is on people-to-people ties. This may diminish Canada’s attractiveness as a destination for Indian students and professionals, which could have long-term consequences for bilateral engagement.
Influence on India’s Future Diplomatic Engagements with the West
- Heightened Assertiveness in Diplomacy: India is likely to take a more assertive stance in its future diplomatic dealings with Western countries when its national security is involved. Western nations may now face greater pressure from India to address separatist activities and terrorism-linked movements within their borders, particularly when these movements threaten India’s territorial integrity.
- Tactical Engagement with Western Allies: India will need to engage tactically with its key Western allies like the U.S., U.K., and the European Union to ensure that they do not adopt Canada’s approach. India’s diplomatic strategy will focus on preventing any broad-based Western alignment with Canada’s position, especially in forums like the G7 or within intelligence alliances such as the Five Eyes.
- Diplomatic Diversification and Non-Western Alliances: The tensions with Canada could push India to further diversify its diplomatic relationships, particularly with non-Western countries. India could strengthen its ties with countries that share its concerns about terrorism and separatism, such as Russia, Israel, or members of the BRICS group.
Conclusion
Going forward, India will likely adopt a more cautious and assertive approach in its interactions with countries that house large diaspora populations, while continuing to strengthen ties with key global powers that share its concerns on terrorism and separatism.
