Contents
Introduction
In an era of multipolar volatility, India faces a “friendless world” driven by shifting global power equations, transactional diplomacy, and diminishing multilateralism, demanding recalibration of its foreign policy to sustain strategic autonomy and global relevance.
The Emerging Global Realities: Causes of a ‘Friendless World’
- Erosion of Multilateralism: Post-2020 geopolitics has witnessed declining faith in multilateral institutions (UN, WTO, WHO). The Russia–Ukraine war and U.S.–China strategic competition have fragmented global consensus. India’s voice in the UNSC reform and WTO agricultural subsidies debate has faced stiff resistance, reflecting weakening collective diplomacy.
- Transactionalism in Global Politics: The “America First” legacy, visible under Donald Trump and continued as “strategic pragmatism” under Joe Biden, prioritizes short-term national gains over alliances. India’s exclusion from the Gaza peace process (2025) and limited role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction post-U.S. withdrawal underline this shift.
- China’s Expanding Influence: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) have consolidated its leadership across Asia and Africa. Through debt diplomacy and digital Silk Road expansion, China has eroded India’s regional sphere of influence. Even traditional partners like Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka engage Beijing for economic leverage.
- Regional Volatility and Strategic Isolation: The Gen Z revolution in Nepal, Bangladesh’s democratic crisis, and Afghanistan-Pakistan instability expose India’s limited leverage in South Asia. The Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact (2025) further dilutes India’s strategic depth in West Asia.
India’s Diplomatic Dilemmas
- From Non-Alignment to Multi-Alignment: India’s strategic culture, rooted in Nehruvian Non-Alignment, struggles to adapt to a competitive multipolar system. Balancing ties among Quad, BRICS, SCO, and Global South forums reflects an identity dilemma—between strategic autonomy and coalition-building.
- Moral Clarity vs Tactical Ambiguity: India’s cautious neutrality on issues like Ukraine and Gaza preserves autonomy but limits moral leadership. As an aspiring “Vishwaguru”, India must balance ethical posturing with pragmatic interest-based diplomacy.
- Erosion of Soft Power: Despite initiatives like International Solar Alliance and Vaccine Maitri, global perceptions of India as a bridge-builder have diminished. Rising domestic polarization occasionally undermines India’s image as a plural democracy.
Adapting India’s Foreign Policy: The Way Forward
- Strategic Realignment and Minilateralism: Deepen engagement through issue-based coalitions—Quad for maritime security, I2U2 for West Asian connectivity, and BIMSTEC for Indo-Pacific outreach. Promote “multi-vector diplomacy” akin to France and ASEAN models.
- Reimagining Neighbourhood Policy: Rebuild trust through economic interdependence, cross-border digital infrastructure, and disaster diplomacy. Leverage Project Mausam and Sagarmala for cultural and maritime influence.
- Economic Diplomacy as Foreign Policy Anchor: Implement “Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI)” with Japan and Australia. Use semiconductor, green hydrogen, and AI cooperation as tools of geo-economic leverage.
- Strategic Communication and Global South Leadership: India’s G20 Presidency (2023) and Voice of Global South Summit (2023) showcased its potential as a normative power. Institutionalize this by leading climate finance reform and UNGA democratization efforts.
- Institutional Reform and Foresight: Establish a National Strategic Council for integrated long-term foreign policy planning. Invest in diplomatic human capital and strategic think tanks for anticipatory governance.
Conclusion
As Henry Kissinger noted, nations survive by adapting to shifting power equations. India’s future relevance depends on flexible realism, blending strategic autonomy with proactive global leadership amid systemic unpredictability.
