Contents
Introduction
According to the Ember Global Electricity Review 2025, renewables overtook coal as the worlds largest electricity source. Yet in India, coals dip remains temporary, revealing deep structural and policy constraints in its energy transition.
Indias Coal Dependence and The Development Dilemma
Coal continues to anchor Indias energy security, providing ~70% of electricity generation and employing over 500,000 workers directly (Coal India Limited, 2024). Despite renewables reaching 50.1% of installed capacity, actual generation remains coal-dominant due to intermittency, storage gaps, and demand volatility.
Why the Dip in Coal Use Is Deemed Temporary
The Ember 2025 Report calls Indias fall in coal use temporary compared to Chinas structural decline. The reasons are multifaceted:
- Demand-Driven Fluctuation: The dip resulted from mild weather and slower industrial demand, not systemic clean energy substitution. As temperatures rise, coal plants again meet peak evening loads.
- Baseload Dependence: Renewable intermittency, especially solars duck curve problem, forces reliance on thermal baseload to ensure grid stability during evenings or monsoon seasons.
- Discom Financial Stress: State electricity distribution companies (DISCOMs) accumulate losses exceeding ₹70,000 crore (2023–24, RBI Bulletin), undermining renewable purchase obligations and deterring investment in green infrastructure.
- Policy Inertia and Regulatory Lock-In: Long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with thermal plants and ongoing coal mine expansion (targeting 1 billion tonnes annual output by 2026, as per Coal Ministry) reinforce coals dominance.
- Storage and Grid Infrastructure Deficit: Indias battery storage capacity (13 GWh operational) is grossly inadequate for balancing 185 GW of renewables. Transmission bottlenecks delay renewable evacuation, especially in Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Structural Gaps in Indias Energy Transition
Indias transition is policy-driven but lacks systemic coherence:
- Fragmented Institutional Design: Overlaps between MNRE, CEA, and state regulators cause policy friction.
- Inadequate Carbon Pricing: The absence of a national carbon market distorts energy economics in favor of coal.
- Skewed Subsidy Architecture: Fossil fuel subsidies (₹1.4 lakh crore, IEA 2023) exceed renewable support.
- Socioeconomic Resistance: Coal belts like Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh depend on coal royalties, jobs, and political patronage—making phaseout politically sensitive.
Making Indias Energy Transition Structural: The Way Forward
A just, planned, and structural transition requires multi-dimensional reforms:
- Energy Storage Revolution: Expand Viability Gap Funding (VGF) to 43 GWh and accelerate pumped hydro (51 GW by 2032) as per CEAs roadmap. Incentivize domestic battery manufacturing under PLI schemes.
- Green Baseload Development: Deploy Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and biomass co-firing to provide clean baseload power. Scale up Green Hydrogen Mission (target: 5 MMT by 2030) to decarbonize industry and heavy transport.
- Market and Regulatory Reforms: Operationalize Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (2023) for disincentivizing coal. Rationalize Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs) with fiscal penalties for non-compliance.
- Regional and Social Transition Planning: Launch Just Transition Commissions in coal-dependent states, modeled on South Africas Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). Retrain coal labor for clean energy jobs via Skill India Energy Corps.
- Grid Modernization and Digitalization: Invest in AI-driven smart grids and inter-state transmission upgrades under the Green Energy Corridor Phase-II.
Conclusion
As Nicholas Sterns Climate Economics Review emphasizes, Sustainable growth is smart growth. Indias coal transition must evolve from reactive substitution to structural transformation—anchored in resilience, inclusivity, and energy justice.
