[Answered] Examine the shifting frontiers of India-Pakistan security from airspace to the sea. Critically analyze the implications for India’s maritime defence strategy and naval modernization.

Introduction

The Operation Sindoor crisis (2025) revealed a shift in India-Pakistan hostilities from airspace to maritime domains. With 95% of India’s trade by sea, maritime security is now central to strategic stability.

Shifting Frontiers: From Air to Sea

Historical Context

1. 1971 War: Indian Navy’s blockade of Karachi crippled Pakistan’s economy.
2. Kargil 1999 & Balakot 2019: Conflicts played out in land-air domains, with the sea peripheral.
3. Post-2025 Crisis: Naval deployments, live-fire drills, and asset dispersals underline a shift towards maritime deterrence.

Pakistan’s Naval Signalling

1. Induction of Hangor-class submarines (Chinese-built) and Babur-class corvettes (Türkiye).
2. Development of anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) doctrine.
3. Strategic dispersal of assets to Gwadar, reducing Karachi’s vulnerability.

India’s Naval Response

1. Operation Sindoor signaled readiness for forward deterrence.
2. Induction of INS Nistar (diving support vessel) and stealth frigates.
3. Joint patrols in the South China Sea with the Philippines, aligning with Indo-Pacific outreach.
4. Doctrinal emphasis: “First to strike at sea in future conflict” (as per Admiral Dinesh Tripathi, 2025).

Implications for India’s Maritime Defence Strategy

1. Escalation Dynamics: Higher risk of war threshold crossing at sea than in air. Naval skirmishes are prolonged, unlike short-lived air encounters, making escalation harder to control.
2. External Involvement: China’s PLAN presence in Gwadar and Karachi: Raises two-front challenge. Türkiye’s naval assistance: Enhances Pakistan’s maritime deterrence. India must prepare for a regionalised crisis with external stakeholders.
3. Deterrence Equation: Pakistan’s growing A2/AD capabilities reduce India’s ability to coerce through blockade. India’s traditional dominance is narrowing — requiring qualitative edge over quantitative parity.

Naval Modernization: Critical Requirements

1. Fleet Modernization: India’s fleet aging; delays in Project 75I submarines and aircraft carrier INS Vikrant’s operational readiness remain concerns. Need to expand nuclear submarine fleet (Arihant-class) for credible second-strike capability.
2. Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA): Satellite-linked Information Fusion Centre–Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) must be integrated with QUAD allies. AI-driven unmanned systems for surveillance in choke points like Strait of Hormuz.
3. Jointness and Doctrinal Shift: Integration with Air Force and Coast Guard under the Theatre Command framework. Development of maritime strike UAVs and hypersonic missiles to counter Pakistan’s evolving deterrence-by-denial strategy.
4. Blue Water to Grey Zone Preparedness: While Indo-Pacific projection remains vital, near-seas coercive capacity must not be diluted. Balancing Indo-Pacific outreach with Arabian Sea deterrence is now strategic necessity.

Conclusion

As it is observed, “Whoever controls the sea controls commerce and destiny.” India’s maritime defence must blend blue-water ambition with grey-zone readiness, ensuring credible deterrence against Pakistan while modernizing for wider Indo-Pacific security.