[Answered] Examine the shifting frontiers of India-Pakistan security from airspace to the sea. Critically analyze the implications for India’s maritime defence strategy and naval modernization.

Introduction

The 2025 Operation Sindoor crisis revealed a decisive shift in India–Pakistan hostilities from airspace to the maritime domain. With over 95% of India’s trade moving by sea, maritime security now underpins strategic stability.

Shifting Frontiers: From Air to Sea

Historical Context

1. While the 1971 war showcased India’s maritime dominance through the Karachi blockade, subsequent confrontations—from Kargil (1999) to Balakot (2019)—remained confined to land and air domains.
2. Post-2025, however, intensified naval signalling, live-fire drills, and asset dispersals mark a distinct shift toward sea-based deterrence.

Pakistan’s Naval Signalling

1. Pakistan’s recent induction of Hangor-class (Chinese-built) submarines and Babur-class corvettes (from Türkiye) demonstrates a move toward technological parity.
2. Its development of an Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) doctrine and dispersal of assets from Karachi to Gwadar reflect strategic decentralization. The launch of PNS Mangro and ballistic missile tests indicate readiness to deter Indian coercion through maritime denial capabilities.

India’s Naval Response

1. Operation Sindoor marked India’s shift toward a forward deterrent posture. The induction of INS Nistar, stealth frigates, and joint patrols with the Philippines in the South China Sea signal both capacity building and Indo-Pacific integration.
2. Admiral Dinesh Tripathi’s 2025 assertion that the Navy would be the “first to strike at sea” underscores doctrinal evolution. These measures align with India’s Maritime Security Strategy (2023) and SAGAR vision for regional leadership.

Implications for India’s Maritime Defence Strategy

1. Escalation Dynamic: Naval engagements carry higher risks of uncontrolled escalation. Unlike transient air skirmishes, maritime operations—being continuous—blur thresholds between peace and conflict. The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) warns that miscalculation at sea could rapidly cross the “war threshold,” complicating crisis management.
2. External Involvement: China’s PLA Navy (PLAN) presence at Gwadar and Karachi and Türkiye’s training and technology support introduce a multi-actor maritime chessboard. This externalization of regional security elevates the risk of a two-front maritime dilemma. India must, therefore, embed deterrence in a multilateral Indo-Pacific framework, strengthening ties with QUAD, ASEAN, and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA).
3. Deterrence Equation: Pakistan’s A2/AD posture narrows India’s coercive leverage. India’s traditional dominance, though intact, is eroding as Pakistan invests in asymmetric capabilities. The challenge is to sustain a qualitative edge through modernization, network-centric warfare, and integration of C4ISR systems (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance).

Naval Modernization: Critical Requirements

1. Fleet Modernization: Accelerate Project 75(I) submarines and aircraft carrier programs; expand Arihant-class SSBNs for credible second-strike capability.
2. Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA): Enhance the Information Fusion Centre–Indian Ocean Region (IFC–IOR) with AI-driven unmanned systems for choke-point surveillance.
3. Doctrinal Integration: Advance jointness under the Theatre Command structure and deploy hypersonic cruise missiles and maritime UAVs for sea denial.
4. Blue-Water and Grey-Zone Balance: Prioritize near-sea coercive strength while sustaining Indo-Pacific outreach. Maritime diplomacy and coastal resilience must complement deterrence.

Conclusion

“Control of the sea means control of destiny.” India’s maritime strategy must merge blue-water aspirations with grey-zone preparedness, modernizing to deter Pakistan while securing the Indo-Pacific commons.