[Answered] Examine the strategic implications of a possible US-China G2 for India’s foreign policy. Critically analyze the necessity for India to ‘manage America’ and ‘engage China’ in a multi-aligned world.

Introduction

With the U.S. and China accounting for ~40% of global GDP and nearly 50% of global carbon emissions (IMF, 2024), the revival of a potential “G2” compact redefines global geopolitics and challenges India’s strategic autonomy.

US–China G2:

1. A G2 implies a concert of powers where Washington and Beijing bilaterally manage global economic and geopolitical affairs—bypassing multilateral forums like the G20, Quad, ASEAN, SCO.
2. Trump’s public declaration of “THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY” signals a geopolitical power shift, where America acknowledges China as an indispensable co-manager of the world economy.

Strategic Implications for India

1. Erosion of multipolarity: India’s foreign policy vision of “Vishwa-Mitra Multipolarity” (PM Modi, 2023) relies on diffusing concentrated power. A G2 reverses this trend by recentralizing global governance into bipolarity, reducing the role of middle powers.
2. Reduced Strategic Space in the Indo-Pacific: India leveraged U.S. support for counterbalancing China (Quad, I2U2, Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative). A G2 may downplay Indo-Pacific pressure on China, weakening India’s deterrence options, especially amidst LAC standoff (Galwan, 2020).
3. Economic Vulnerabilities: 11% of India’s imports come from China; critical dependencies exist in API/pharmaceuticals (70%) and electronics (85%). A G2-led geo-economic order could dictate global supply chain norms, marginalizing India’s industrial ambitions (PLI schemes, Make in India).
4. Diplomatic Marginalization: G2 signals a return to concert diplomacy, where great powers negotiate outcomes for third countries. This limits India’s influence in global governance reforms (UNSC, WTO agriculture, climate finance).

Why India must ‘Manage America’

Jaishankar’s “multi-alignment” doctrine requires strategic hedging, not bandwagoning.
Managing America means:

1. Avoid overdependence on U.S. containment strategy against China: Excessive alignment could trap India in bloc politics. Trump’s unpredictability (2017–2020) shows alliances may shift.
2. Maintain leverage and bargaining power: Through issue-based coalitions: Technology partnerships (critical minerals MoU with Australia), G20 presidency outcomes (Global Biofuels Alliance).
3. Prevent U.S.–China deal-making at India’s expense: Historically, great power détente (Nixon-Kissinger with China, 1972) hurt India’s regional interests.

Why India must ‘Engage China’

Engagement is not concession — it is realist diplomacy.

1. Stabilize border tensions without sacrificing core interests: Border disengagement → reopens economic & diplomatic bandwidth.
2. Economic pragmaticism: Decoupling is impossible; de-risking + diversification is rational. India uses “competitive engagement + selective cooperation” (BRICS, SCO).
3. Shape Asian institutional architecture: “Asia for Asians” narrative cannot be ceded to China. India’s Act East + Indo-Pacific + SAGAR Outlook provide alternatives.

Path Forward: New India Way 2.0

Conclusion

As Jaishankar notes in The India Way, diplomacy is about “maximising options”. In a possible G2 era, India’s power lies not in choosing sides, but shaping outcomes.