[Answered] Political instability in Myanmar and the resulting refugee influx are straining Northeast India’s security, economy, and border management. Discuss the challenges posed by this situation and suggest measures to maintain stability and economic engagement.

The 2021 military coup in Myanmar has led to widespread armed resistance, forcing thousands to flee into India’s Northeast, particularly Manipur and Mizoram. This has strained security, disrupted economic linkages, and complicated border management.

Challenges Posed by Myanmar’s Instability

• Security Threats: The insurgency in Myanmar has strengthened linkages between Indian insurgent groups and Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), fueling instability in Manipur. The porous Indo-Myanmar border has facilitated arms smuggling, drug trafficking, and militant movements.
• Ethnic Conflicts and Social Strain: The refugee influx, particularly of Mizo-Chin-Kuki groups, has exacerbated tensions in Manipur, intensifying the Meitei-Kuki conflict. Contrasting responses from states—Mizoram showing empathy while Manipur raising concerns—have complicated governance strategies.
• Economic Disruptions: The conflict has halted trade in border towns like Moreh, stalling India’s ambitions to make Northeast India a gateway to Southeast Asia. Key projects like the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway have been delayed, affecting regional connectivity.
• Border Management Challenges: The Free Movement Regime (FMR) is being restricted to 10 km, limiting cross-border trade and cultural exchanges. The lack of clear coordination between India and Myanmar has led to ad-hoc policy responses.

Measures to Maintain Stability and Economic Engagement

• Enhanced Border Security and Intelligence: Strengthen border infrastructure and surveillance to curb insurgent movement and illicit trade. Increase cooperation with Myanmar’s ethnic organizations to prevent cross-border insurgency linkages.
• Humanitarian and Development Initiatives: Establish relief camps with adequate healthcare and education to manage refugee influx. Develop economic infrastructure in Myanmar’s border regions to reduce the pressure on Indian states.
• Diplomatic and Strategic Engagement: Collaborate with ASEAN and other regional players to nudge Myanmar towards a federal democratic transition. Engage Myanmar’s stakeholders to revive stalled economic projects like the Trilateral Highway.
• Revitalizing Economic Connectivity: Promote local trade through border haats and special economic zones. Use border management policies to facilitate economic integration rather than restrict movement.

Conclusion

While Myanmar’s instability poses significant challenges, a calibrated response combining security measures, humanitarian support, and economic diplomacy can safeguard India’s interests. India must seize the first opportunity to enhance connectivity and economic engagement with Myanmar and Southeast Asia.