[Answered] The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as storms in Delhi and floods in hill states, is raising concerns about the impact of climate change on the patterns of Western Disturbances. Discuss how climate change is altering the behavior of Western Disturbances, and critically examine the implications of these changes for India’s weather patterns, agriculture, and disaster preparedness.

Introduction

Western Disturbances (WDs) are eastward-moving, rain-bearing wind systems that originate in the Mediterranean region and travel through Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan before reaching India. Traditionally confined to the winter months (December–March), WDs are vital for bringing precipitation to north and northwestern India, influencing agriculture and weather stability. However, climate change is increasingly altering their behaviour, causing unseasonal storms, flash floods, and extreme weather events.

Climate Change and Changing Behaviour of WDs

Recent studies and data reveal the following shifts in WD behaviour due to climate change:

1. Increased Frequency and Intensity: According to Climate Trends (2024), there has been a rise in WD frequency since late January 2025, causing storms in Delhi and floods in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Dr. K. J. Ramesh, former IMD chief, attributes intensified WDs to warming-induced increased moisture over the Himalayan region.
2. Temporal Shift and Season Extension: WDs are now observed even in summer months like May–July, which is unusual. Weather and Climate Dynamics (2024) links this to the delayed retreat of the Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream, which historically receded before the monsoon.
3. Jet Stream Strengthening and Meridional Drift: Global warming strengthens the Subtropical Jet Stream, allowing WDs to spread farther north and south than before, leading to erratic and widespread precipitation.
4. More Moisture Due to Warming Seas: Earth Science Reviews (2022) notes the Arabian Sea’s surface temperature has increased by 1.2–1.4°C, contributing to higher year-round moisture for WDs and more intense rainfall.

Implications for India

1. Weather Patterns: Unseasonal rainfall and erratic precipitation events are becoming common, disrupting established weather cycles. Recent Delhi storms (May 2, 2025) show that urban areas are increasingly vulnerable.
2. Agriculture: Rabi crops like wheat are highly dependent on winter WDs for irrigation. Changes in WD timing and intensity can harm crop yields or cause lodging due to heavy rainfall and hailstorms.
3. Disaster Preparedness: Flash floods, landslides, and glacier destabilization in Himalayan states indicate heightened disaster risk. Current early warning systems and infrastructure are insufficient to cope with WD-induced extreme weather.

Conclusion

The altered behavior of Western Disturbances underlines the growing influence of climate change on India’s climatology. From disrupting seasonal weather and threatening agricultural sustainability to exposing vulnerabilities in disaster management, the implications are profound. As India moves towards its vision of climate-resilient development, it is critical to integrate improved WD monitoring into policy, enhance early warning systems, build resilient infrastructure, and strengthen regional and global meteorological cooperation.