[Answered] The ongoing conflict in Gaza and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s ‘expanding the canvas’ strategy have significant implications for the geopolitical reconfiguration of West Asia, particularly with Saudi Arabia playing a key role. Analyze the evolving dynamics and their impact on regional stability and global politics.

West Asia is undergoing a profound geopolitical reconfiguration following the Gaza conflict. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s “expanding the canvas” strategy—wherein he proposed the depopulation of Gaza and its redevelopment—has added complexity to regional diplomacy.

Evolving Dynamics

• Strengthening U.S.-Israel Ties: Trump’s unwavering support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, despite global criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, signals an attempt to solidify the U.S.-Israel alliance. However, this risks alienating Arab states and escalating regional tensions.
• Balancing Global Alliances: While maintaining strong U.S. ties, Saudi Arabia has pursued diplomatic engagement with Iran and China, signaling a multipolar strategic approach. The kingdom’s role in post-war reconstruction efforts in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon could further enhance its geopolitical standing.
• Pragmatic Approach to the Israel-Palestine Conflict: Saudi Arabia has conditioned normalization with Israel on the establishment of a Palestinian state, a shift from previous tacit understandings under the Abraham Accords. Riyadh has hosted Arab-Islamic summits in Gaza, signaling its intent to lead diplomatic resolutions rather than passively follow U.S. initiatives.

Impact on Regional Stability and Global Politics

• The Palestine Question as a Sticking Point: Saudi Arabia’s insistence on Palestinian statehood as a precondition for normalization with Israel poses a major roadblock to U.S.-led diplomatic efforts. The Israeli Knesset’s rejection of a two-state solution further complicates the situation, creating a policy deadlock.
• Iran’s Response and the ‘Axis of Resistance’: Iran’s regional influence through proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen remains a factor in shaping West Asia’s security landscape. Any perceived Saudi-Israeli rapprochement without Palestinian concessions could trigger escalations by Hezbollah and Hamas, further destabilizing the region.
• Economic and Energy Policy Ramifications: Post-war reconstruction in Gaza is expected to cost over $50 billion, with broader economic instability affecting trade and investment in the region. Trump’s energy policies could disrupt global oil markets, potentially leading to tensions between OPEC and Washington.
• S.-Saudi-Israel Coordination Challenges: Trump’s unpredictability and transactional diplomacy raise concerns about the long-term viability of U.S. policies in West Asia. Saudi Arabia’s broader strategic vision includes economic diversification and security autonomy, making it less likely to follow U.S. directives without tangible benefits.

Conclusion

While Trump’s disruptive approach could force diplomatic recalibration, the path to regional stability remains uncertain. Saudi Arabia’s role as a stabilizing force and the necessity of a viable Palestinian solution will determine the long-term success of these geopolitical shifts.