[Answered] The recent decline in school enrolment in India raises concerns about the sustainability of its demographic dividend. Analyze the underlying causes of this trend and discuss its long-term socio-economic implications. Suggest policy measures to reverse this decline.

India’s demographic dividend, driven by a young and expanding workforce, has long been seen as a key driver of its economic growth.

Causes of Declining School Enrolment

• Demographic Shifts – The primary reason for the drop in enrolment is the declining school-age population. Between 2014-15 and 2023-24, the 6-17 age group shrank by 17.3 million (5.78%), closely mirroring the 24.51 million (9.45%) decline in total school enrolment.
• Falling Fertility Rates – India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dropped to 2.01 in 2022, below the replacement level of 2.10, reducing the number of children entering the school system.
• Declining Public School Enrolment – Government and government-aided schools, which serve the majority of disadvantaged students, witnessed a significant drop (13.8% and 16.41%, respectively). This shift may reflect a preference for private schooling or dissatisfaction with public education quality.
• Migration and Disruptions in Education – Seasonal migration for work leads to irregular attendance and eventual dropout, particularly among economically weaker sections.

Long-Term Socio-Economic Implications

• Weakening of India’s Workforce Advantage – A shrinking student base today means a smaller working-age population in the future, reducing India’s capacity for economic expansion.
• Premature Aging Without Economic Preparedness – Developed countries experienced aging after achieving economic prosperity. In India, aging before wealth accumulation could strain welfare systems and slow growth.
• Rising Economic Inequality – The sharp drop in enrolment in government schools may disproportionately affect poorer families, further widening the gap between rich and poor.
• Pressure on Higher Education and Skill Development – The eventual spillover of declining school enrolment into higher education institutions may lead to a reduced pool of skilled professionals.

Policy Measures to Reverse the Decline

• Boosting Fertility Through Supportive Policies – Countries like Japan and South Korea have implemented policies such as childcare support and parental leave. India can consider incentives like tax benefits and subsidized childcare.
• Strengthening Public School Systems – Improving teacher quality, infrastructure, and curriculum in government schools can help retain students and rebuild trust in the system.
• Enhancing Vocational and Alternative Learning Pathways – Expanding skill-based education and digital learning platforms can provide flexible options for children at risk of dropping out.
• Addressing Migration-Related Education Gaps – Establishing mobile schools and special enrolment drives for migrant children can reduce disruptions in learning.

Conclusion

Policymakers must act swiftly to ensure that education remains a priority, not just to sustain the demographic dividend but to prepare for an inevitable demographic shift toward an aging society.