[Answered] The U.S.-India defense partnership has strengthened over the years, but a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could alter the trajectory of bilateral ties. Analyze the key areas of defense cooperation between India and the U.S. and examine the challenges that may arise under a Trump 2.0 administration.

The U.S.-India defense partnership has deepened significantly, with expanded cooperation in defense trade, joint military exercises, technology sharing, and supply chain integration.

Key Areas of Defense Cooperation

• Expansion of Defense Trade and Co-Production: India is proceeding with the co-production of the ‘Javelin’ Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) and ‘Stryker’ Infantry Combat Vehicles (ICVs), integrating itself into the global defense supply chain.
• Joint Research and Technology Transfers: The Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA) was launched, fostering co-development in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and autonomous technologies. Collaboration in Active Towed Array Systems (ATAS) between L3Harris and Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) will enhance India’s naval warfare capabilities.
• Regulatory and Procurement Alignment: India and the U.S. have agreed to review arms transfer regulations, fostering synergy in defense trade, maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO). A Reciprocal Defence Procurement (RDP) agreement is under negotiation, aiming to align defense acquisition mechanisms and facilitate mutual defense services and goods exchange.
• Emerging Areas of Collaboration: Possibilities of future cooperation in undersea systems, fifth-generation fighter aircraft, space, and air defense were highlighted during talks. The U.S. has reiterated the potential sale of F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft to India, albeit with several operational challenges.

Challenges Under a Trump 2.0 Administration

• Delays in Critical Defense Deliveries: The joint statement lacked any assurance regarding the urgent delivery of General Electric (GE) F-404 and F-414 engines required for India’s Tejas-Mark 1A and Mark-II fighter jets. The dwindling number of Indian Air Force (IAF) fighter squadrons (potentially falling below 30) makes these delays a major operational concern.
• Complexities of the F-35 Integration: The high operational and maintenance costs of the F-35 may pose a significant financial and logistical burden on the IAF. Potential restrictions on F-35 usage by the U.S. could limit India’s strategic autonomy, impacting its doctrine of non-alignment and multi-supplier defense procurement strategy.
• Regulatory and Strategic Divergences: The lack of a streamlined regulatory framework for arms transfers could hinder seamless defense trade. The CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions remain a potential challenge due to India’s continued defense ties with Russia.
• Impact of “America First” Policy: The Trump administration may adopt a more transactional approach to defense deals, linking them to broader trade & economic considerations. There is a possibility of a reduction in U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific, shifting greater security responsibilities onto India.

Conclusion

While the foundation of defense ties remains stable, India must strategically balance its defense procurement, diversify its supplier base, and negotiate terms that preserve its strategic autonomy. Moving forward, both nations must work towards resolving regulatory bottlenecks and accelerating key defense deliveries to maintain the momentum of this vital partnership.