| Introduction: Contextual Introduction Body: Highlight the factors driving normalization efforts and assess whether India’s approach aligns with its long-term strategic interests Conclusion: Way forward |
India-China relations have witnessed a shift following Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s visit to China in January 2025, where both sides announced steps toward restoring bilateral exchanges. However, concerns persist regarding whether India’s approach ensures the restoration of status quo ante along the LAC or concedes to China’s narrative of “moving on.”
Factors Driving Normalization Efforts
- External Geopolitical Pressures: The resurgence of Donald Trump as U.S. President (2024) may have influenced China’s willingness to engage, similar to past conciliatory gestures after the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.
- Economic Considerations: The resumption of trade, tourism, and media exchanges aligns with mutual economic interests, given the substantial India-China trade volume.
- Multilateral Engagements: Agreements before the 16th BRICS Summit (2024) suggest that both nations seek diplomatic stability to enhance their global standing.
Concerns Regarding India’s Approach
- Lack of Clarity on LAC Status: The Indian government’s silence on de-escalation, demilitarization, and patrolling rights raises doubts about China’s compliance.
- Strategic Imbalance: Premature normalization without securing territorial commitments may validate China’s “moving on” approach.
- Cyclical Nature of Ties: Past fluctuations under Xi Jinping indicate that normalization efforts could be tactical rather than lasting.
Way Forward: A Balanced Approach
- Ensuring Military Transparency and Verifiability: India must demand clear, verifiable assurances on Chinese troop withdrawal, restoration of patrolling rights, and demobilization. Strengthening military infrastructure along the LAC and continuing strategic cooperation with partners like the U.S. and Japan would serve as deterrents to future incursions.
- Strategic Economic Engagement: While trade remains an important factor, India must diversify its supply chains to reduce dependence on China in critical sectors. Policies such as the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme should be leveraged to bolster domestic manufacturing.
- Diplomatic Caution and Sustained Vigilance: Engaging with China through multilateral platforms while maintaining a firm stance on border issues would help India navigate the complexities of bilateral relations effectively.
Conclusion
India must ensure that its approach aligns with long-term strategic interests by insisting on verifiable de-escalation while maintaining economic pragmatism. A cautious yet firm policy would help India safeguard its sovereignty while leveraging diplomatic opportunities in an evolving global landscape.
